New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction & Picks 7/9/2024

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Details

• Date: July 9, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

As the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees gear up for their first matchup of the series on July 9, 2024, the stakes are high within the American League East. The Yankees, boasting a strong 55-37 record, have been having a great season and look to continue their dominance. Meanwhile, the Rays, holding a 44-46 record, have had an average season, but they will be hoping to turn things around at Tropicana Field.

The Rays will send right-handed pitcher Ryan Pepiot to the mound. Pepiot, who has started 15 games this year, holds a 4-5 record with a 4.40 ERA. However, his 3.78 SIERA, a key peripheral indicator, suggests he's been unlucky and might perform better going forward. On the flip side, Pepiot's high-flyball rate (44 FB%) could be a concern against the Yankees' powerful lineup, which ranks 2nd in MLB in home runs with 131 this season.

For the Yankees, left-hander Carlos Rodon will take the ball. Rodon, with an 9-6 record and a 4.45 ERA over 18 starts, has also been somewhat unlucky according to his 3.92 SIERA. The Rays, with their 26th-ranked offense in terms of home runs, might struggle to capitalize on Rodon's flyballs, potentially giving him an edge.

Offensively, the Yankees hold a significant advantage. Their offense ranks 3rd overall in MLB and 2nd in home runs, showcasing their ability to put runs on the board. In contrast, the Rays rank 21st in overall offense and 26th in home runs, though their 5th-ranked stolen bases show they can be a threat on the basepaths.

In their last week, Brandon Lowe has been the standout for the Rays, hitting .273 with two home runs and a .996 OPS over six games. For the Yankees, Ben Rice has been red-hot, belting four home runs and driving in 10 RBIs with a 1.197 OPS over his last six games.

The betting markets have this one pegged as a close contest, with the Yankees holding a slight edge at -130 and the Rays at +110. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Rays' bullpen ranks 16th, while the Yankees' bullpen is 21st, indicating potential late-game volatility. Expect an intriguing battle as these division rivals take the field.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Considering that flyball hitters have a sizeable advantage over groundball pitchers, Carlos Rodon and his 41.7% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a difficult spot in this game facing 1 opposing GB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Benjamin Rice is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Gleyber Torres has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Ryan Pepiot has experienced some positive variance in regards to his strikeouts this year, notching a 9.87 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 9.60 — a 0.27 K/9 gap.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Jose Siri has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.6-mph average to last season's 94-mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Tampa Bay Rays have been the 10th-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in future games

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 48 of their last 74 games (+20.80 Units / 24% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 37 of their last 65 games (+13.90 Units / 18% ROI)
• Juan Soto has hit the Walks Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.65 Units / 38% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 4.71 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.16

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