New York Yankees vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction, Picks 4/27/2024

New York Yankees vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 27, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees
  • Joe Ross - Brewers
• Run Line: Yankees -1.5 125, Brewers 1.5 -145
• Money Line: Yankees -135, Brewers 115
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5

New York Yankees vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• New York Yankees - 55%
• Milwaukee Brewers - 45%

Projected Win %:

• New York Yankees - 54.49%
• Milwaukee Brewers - 45.51%

New York Yankees vs Milwaukee Brewers Game Preview & Prediction

On April 27, 2024, the Milwaukee Brewers will face off against the New York Yankees at American Family Field. As the home team, the Brewers will look to capitalize on their impressive 17-8 record this season, while the Yankees aim to maintain their strong performance with a record of 17-10.

The Brewers are having a fantastic season, with their offense ranking as the fourth-best in MLB. However, their team batting average is relatively low, sitting at 27th in the league. Despite this, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 10th. Their bullpen is also highly regarded, placing eighth in our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

The Yankees, on the other hand, have an average ranking for their offense at 12th in MLB. Their team batting average is low, ranking 29th, but they make up for it with their eighth ranking in home runs. However, their stolen bases rank 20th. The Yankees' bullpen is currently ranked 20th in our Power Rankings.

Joe Ross is projected to start for the Brewers, and while our advanced-stat Power Rankings consider him below average as the 142nd best starting pitcher in MLB, he has the opportunity to improve considering his 3.35 xERA and 3.35 FIP, which suggest he has been unlucky this season. Ross has started four games this year, with a Win/Loss record of 1-2 and an ERA of 4.05.

Carlos Rodon, the Yankees' projected starting pitcher, is ranked higher in our Power Rankings as the 66th best starting pitcher. He has started five games, earning a record of 1-1 and an impressive ERA of 2.70. However, his 5.09 xFIP suggests that he may experience some regression in his performance going forward.

With the Brewers' strong offense and bullpen, they have a chance to take advantage of Carlos Rodon's high-walk tendency, as the Brewers have the third-most walks in MLB. The Yankees will rely on their power-hitting lineup but will need to overcome their lower team batting average.

According to the current odds, the Brewers have an average implied team total of 4.00 runs, while the Yankees have a higher implied team total of 4.50 runs. This suggests that betting markets consider the game to be a close matchup.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Out of all the teams playing today, the 5th-worst outfield defense is that of the the New York Yankees.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Milwaukee's #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Austin Wells, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Throwing 80.7 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Joe Ross falls in the 13th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Blake Perkins has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (76% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

William Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Run Line in 24 of their last 40 games (+9.00 Units / 17% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 22 away games (+10.45 Units / 43% ROI)
• William Contreras has only hit the Singles Under in 2 of his last 4 games (-0.05 Units / -1% ROI)

Yankees vs Brewers Prediction: Yankees 5.08 - Brewers 4.38

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