New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Pick – 4/30/2025

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to face the New York Yankees on April 30, 2025, both teams come into this matchup with starkly different trajectories. The Yankees, currently at 18-12, are riding high with the best offense in MLB, while the Orioles sit at 11-18, struggling to find consistency throughout the season. In their last game, the Yankees emerged victorious, highlighting their momentum and boosting their confidence coming into this series' third contest.

On the mound, Cade Povich is projected to start for Baltimore, bringing a modest Win/Loss record of 1-2 and an unsightly ERA of 5.04. However, his 4.02 xFIP suggests that luck hasn't been on his side, so fans could be hoping for a turnaround. Povich typically pitches around 5.0 innings, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs, which only adds to the pressure he faces against a potent Yankees lineup.

Carlos Carrasco takes the hill for New York and possesses experience but has struggled this season with a 5.26 ERA. With a Win/Loss record of 2-1, he also has a 4.68 xFIP, indicating he, too, may see some improvement soon. Carrasco is projected to pitch just 4.4 innings and can be expected to allow 3.2 earned runs, which might open the door for the Orioles to capitalize.

When it comes to offensive firepower, the Yankees boast the 1st best batting average in MLB, while the Orioles rank a disappointing 27th. Despite the Orioles' strength in home runs, ranking 10th in that category, they will need a significant uptick in overall performance to compete with New York's elite offense. With a high Game Total of 10.0 runs and Baltimore's appealing moneyline of -105, this matchup presents intriguing betting opportunities, especially for those who believe the Orioles can leverage their home-field advantage in a tightly contested battle.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Carlos Carrasco's sinker percentage has risen by 6.3% from last year to this one (16.6% to 22.9%) .

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Jasson Dominguez has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.9-mph to 96.2-mph in the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the New York Yankees in this game has an estimated true talent wOBA of .322, which is considerably worse than their actual wOBA of .358 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Cade Povich's fastball velocity has decreased 1 mph this year (91.5 mph) below where it was last season (92.5 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Cedric Mullins is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of New York (#1-worst of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Baltimore's 90.3-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in the league: #4 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games at home (+5.80 Units / 44% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 away games (+4.00 Units / 42% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+16.80 Units / 66% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Yankees 5.17, Baltimore Orioles 5.8

• Date: April 30, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Carrasco - Yankees
  • Cade Povich - Orioles

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