New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Pick – 4/29/2025

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

On April 29, 2025, the Baltimore Orioles will host the New York Yankees at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, marking the second game of their series. The Orioles, currently in fourth place in the American League East with a disappointing 11-17 record, are struggling to find their footing this season. Meanwhile, the Yankees are sitting comfortably in second place with a strong 17-12 record and feature an offense that ranks as the best in MLB.

In their previous matchup on April 28, the Orioles managed a narrow victory, winning 4-3, which was a much-needed boost for a team that has faced significant challenges. They will send Kyle Gibson to the mound, who has had a rough season thus far. Ranked as the 226th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, Gibson's projections indicate he could struggle today, averaging 5.1 innings pitched while allowing 3.5 earned runs, which is less than ideal.

On the other side, Carlos Rodon is projected to start for the Yankees. Rodon has performed well this season, holding a solid 3.50 ERA and showing promising underlying numbers with a xERA of 2.90, suggesting he has been somewhat unlucky. His last outing was impressive, going 7 innings with no earned runs and 8 strikeouts, showcasing his potential to dominate against a struggling Orioles offense that currently ranks 21st in the league.

While the Yankees are favored to win with a current moneyline of -150, the projections suggest that the Orioles could outperform expectations. Baltimore's best hitter has been showing signs of life, hitting .292 with a .983 OPS, and if he can keep up his recent form, he may be able to capitalize on Rodon's high walk rate. With a game total set at 10.0 runs, fans can expect an exciting matchup as two teams with contrasting seasons clash once again.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Over his last 3 GS, Carlos Rodon has seen a significant decline in his fastball velocity: from 93.6 mph over the entire season to 92.6 mph recently.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Trent Grisham is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the New York Yankees today has an estimated true talent wOBA of .335, which is quite a bit lower than their actual wOBA of .349 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Kyle Gibson is an extreme groundball pitcher (45.5% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Oriole Park at Camden Yards — the #7 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Gunnar Henderson's average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 95.9-mph now compared to just 92.7-mph then.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Baltimore Orioles batters jointly rank among the best in Major League Baseball this year (3rd-) as it relates to their 90.6-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.05 Units / 69% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 away games (+5.45 Units / 36% ROI)
• Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+7.85 Units / 29% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Yankees 6.06, Baltimore Orioles 5.28

• Date: April 29, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees
  • Kyle Gibson - Orioles

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