New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Pick – 4/28/2025

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles host the New York Yankees on April 28, 2025, the stakes remain high despite the Orioles’ struggles this season. With a record of 10-17, Baltimore is in the midst of a tough year, while the Yankees sit comfortably at 17-11, showcasing their prowess as they currently rank as the best offense in MLB.

On the mound, the Orioles are projected to start Tomoyuki Sugano, a right-hander with a Win/Loss record of 2-1 and a solid ERA of 3.54. However, advanced metrics suggest that his luck may be running out, as his 4.79 xFIP indicates regression is likely. Sugano's tendency to allow 3.4 earned runs on average could be a concern against a Yankees lineup that has hit 2nd most home runs this season. Conversely, Will Warren is set to take the mound for New York, showing promise despite his below-average ERA of 4.79 and a concerning tendency to issue walks (11.5 BB%).

While the Orioles' offense ranks 20th overall in MLB, they do possess some power, ranking 9th in home runs. However, their low strikeout rate could play into the hands of Sugano, who thrives against high-strikeout offenses. The matchup also features an intriguing element, as the Yankees may struggle to draw walks against Sugano's strong command.

Betting markets consider this matchup competitive, with the Orioles’ moneyline at +100 and the Yankees at -120. Given the high Game Total of 9.5 runs, this game promises an exciting showdown at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, where both pitchers will be seeking to assert control over their respective lineups.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Will Warren is an extreme groundball pitcher (46.1% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Oriole Park at Camden Yards — the #6 HR venue among all parks — in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Baltimore's 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Austin Wells, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The underlying talent of the New York Yankees projected lineup today (.335 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a good deal worse than their .352 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Tomoyuki Sugano's high usage percentage of his secondary pitches (70.9% this year) should work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Ryan Mountcastle is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 52% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Baltimore Orioles bats collectively have been one of the best in baseball this year (3rd-) when assessing their 90.6-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+4.00 Units / 71% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 13 away games (+2.10 Units / 13% ROI)
• Jordan Westburg has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.20 Units / 91% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Yankees 5.92, Baltimore Orioles 5.12

• Date: April 28, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Will Warren - Yankees
  • Tomoyuki Sugano - Orioles

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