New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins Pick & Prediction – 5/15/2024

New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 15, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Marcus Stroman - Yankees
  • Pablo Lopez - Twins

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated American League matchup, the Minnesota Twins will host the New York Yankees at Target Field on May 15, 2024. Both teams are having great seasons, with the Twins boasting a record of 24-17 and the Yankees standing at 28-15.

On the mound, the Twins are projected to start right-handed pitcher Pablo Lopez, who has been an elite performer this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Lopez is ranked as the #10 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. He has started 8 games, with a Win/Loss record of 4-2 and an ERA of 3.89. However, his 2.73 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform even better going forward.

The Yankees will counter with right-handed pitcher Marcus Stroman, who has been above average this season. According to our Power Rankings, Stroman is ranked as the #72 best starting pitcher in MLB. He has started 8 games, with a Win/Loss record of 2-2 and an ERA of 3.80. However, his 4.72 xERA and 5.08 FIP indicate that he has been lucky and may regress in future performances.

In terms of offense, the Twins rank as the #10 best team in MLB, while the Yankees rank #4. However, the Twins have struggled with their team batting average, ranking #22 in the league, while the Yankees have excelled in the power department, ranking #8 in team home runs. The Twins' bullpen is considered the #5 best in MLB, while the Yankees' bullpen ranks #19.

Looking at the recent performance of each team's best hitter, Carlos Santana has been on fire for the Twins over the last 7 games, recording 8 hits, 5 runs, 8 RBIs, and 3 home runs with a batting average of .400 and a 1.300 OPS. For the Yankees, Jose Trevino has been their standout hitter over the past week, hitting 2 home runs with a batting average of .364 and a 1.273 OPS.

The game total for this matchup is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring. The Twins are currently favored with a moneyline of -115, giving them an implied win probability of 51%. The Yankees, with a moneyline of -105, have an implied win probability of 49%, making this game a close contest according to betting markets.

With the Twins having a slight edge in projected win probability and an average implied team total of 4.05 runs, they will look to capitalize on their strong season and home-field advantage. The Yankees, on the other hand, will aim to continue their impressive performance and overcome their lower implied win probability of 3.95 runs. It's bound to be an exciting game between two talented teams.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Marcus Stroman's 89.8-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.1-mph decrease from last season's 90.9-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

This season, there has been a decline in Alex Verdugo's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 27.26 ft/sec last year to 26.57 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

In today's game, Juan Soto is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.6% rate (88th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Pablo Lopez projects to strikeout 6.7 batters in today's outing, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

As it relates to his batting average, Ryan Jeffers has been lucky since the start of last season. His .280 figure has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .240.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

The Minnesota Twins have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Ryan Jeffers, Trevor Larnach, Edouard Julien).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 27% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 10 of their last 16 games (+6.55 Units / 38% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 23 away games (+10.30 Units / 38% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 4.35 vs Minnesota Twins 4.38

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