New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 6, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sean Manaea - Mets
  • Kyle Gibson - Cardinals

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

In a National League matchup scheduled for May 6, 2024, the St. Louis Cardinals will play host to the New York Mets at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals, with a record of 15-19, are having a tough season, while the Mets, with a record of 16-18, are below average. Both teams are looking to turn their seasons around and secure a much-needed win.

The Cardinals are projected to start right-handed pitcher Kyle Gibson, whose advanced-stat Power Rankings place him at #167 among MLB starting pitchers. While Gibson has started six games this year and has a decent ERA of 3.79, peripheral indicators suggest that he has been lucky so far and may see a decline in performance going forward. On the other hand, the Mets are projected to start left-handed pitcher Sean Manaea, who has an ERA of 3.07 this season, making him a reliable option for the team.

Gibson is known for his low-strikeout pitching style, with a strikeout percentage of 19.1 this year. However, he will face a Mets offense that ranks fourth in the league for the fewest strikeouts, potentially giving the Mets an advantage in capitalizing on Gibson's weaknesses. Meanwhile, the Cardinals offense ranks as the 28th best in MLB this season, highlighting their struggles at the plate.

When it comes to the bullpen, the Cardinals have the #1 ranked bullpen according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Mets rank 14th. This could give the Cardinals an edge in the later innings of the game.

Looking at the team rankings, the Cardinals have performed well in terms of batting average and home runs, ranking 7th and 5th respectively. However, they have struggled in stolen bases, ranking 23rd. The Mets, on the other hand, rank 24th in batting average, 11th in home runs, and 15th in stolen bases. These rankings provide an estimate of underlying talent, regardless of actual year-to-date performance.

In their last game, the Cardinals played against an unknown opponent, while the Mets faced another unknown team. The Cardinals' best hitter this season has been undisclosed, while the Mets' best hitter has also not been identified. However, over the last seven games, Nolan Arenado has been the Cardinals' standout performer, recording 8 hits, 6 RBIs, and 1 home run with a batting average of .364 and an OPS of 1.052. For the Mets, Brandon Nimmo has been their top performer over the last week, with 7 hits, 4 RBIs, and 1 home run, along with a batting average of .304 and an OPS of 1.013.

With a game total set at 8.0 runs, the betting markets anticipate a close game. The Cardinals are favored with a moneyline of -125, giving them a 53% implied win probability, while the Mets have a moneyline of +105, with a 47% implied win probability.

As both teams look to improve their records, this game presents an opportunity for the Cardinals to capitalize on their offensive strengths and the Mets to exploit Gibson's low-strikeout pitching style. With the Cardinals' strong bullpen and the Mets' reliable starter in Manaea, it should be an intriguing matchup to watch.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Sean Manaea has averaged 14.7 outs per game per started this year, placing in the 24th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Brett Baty is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the strong infield defense of St. Louis (#2-best on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The New York Mets (21.3 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 4th-least strikeout-prone group of hitters of the day.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Kyle Gibson's cut-fastball rate has jumped by 5.8% from last season to this one (16.6% to 22.4%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Lars Nootbaar has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (52% of the time), but he is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen projects as the best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 61 games (+4.55 Units / 7% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games (+13.90 Units / 22% ROI)
• Nolan Arenado has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 32 games (+11.75 Units / 34% ROI)

New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.25 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.82

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