New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/7/2024

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Details

• Date: July 7, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sean Manaea - Mets
  • Luis Ortiz - Pirates

Betting Odds

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Mets are set to clash on July 7, 2024, in the third game of their series at PNC Park. With the Pirates sitting at 42-46 and the Mets at 43-44, both teams are looking to gain some momentum as they approach the All-Star break.

The Pirates, who are the home team in this National League matchup, have been struggling this season with a below-average offense that ranks 25th in overall production. They will be up against a Mets team that boasts the 11th-best offense in MLB, powered by their 4th-ranked home run tally. This power at the plate could pose a significant challenge for Pirates starter Luis Ortiz, a high-flyball pitcher whose 39% flyball rate this year might play right into the Mets' strength.

Ortiz, who has a 4-2 record with a 3.27 ERA, has been somewhat lucky this season according to his 4.39 xFIP. Despite his solid ERA, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, ranks him as the 225th-best starting pitcher, indicating he's one of the worst in the league. Projections for today don’t favor Ortiz, with expectations of allowing 2.8 earned runs and 5.2 hits over 4.8 innings, making it likely he may struggle against a potent Mets lineup.

On the other side, the Mets will start Sean Manaea, who sports a 5-3 record and a 3.67 ERA. Although his ERA suggests he's been effective, his 4.37 xFIP implies some luck has been on his side as well. Manaea is expected to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, similar to Ortiz but with slightly better control and strikeout potential.

Offensively, the Pirates have leaned on Michael A. Taylor recently, who has been scorching hot over his last five games with a .571 batting average and a 1.571 OPS. In contrast, the Mets' Brandon Nimmo has also been impressive, hitting .381 with an OPS of 1.077 over his last six games, along with three stolen bases.

The Pirates' bullpen, ranked 10th by advanced-stat Power Rankings, has been a bright spot and could be pivotal in keeping the game close. Meanwhile, the Mets' bullpen ranks 21st, which could be a weakness the Pirates look to exploit late in the game.

The betting markets give the Mets a slight edge with a moneyline set at -135, indicating a 55% implied win probability. The Pirates, meanwhile, are at +115 with a 45% implied win probability. Given the Mets’ offensive firepower and the pitching matchups, this game looks to be tightly contested, with a high Game Total of 9.0 runs suggesting plenty of action for fans and bettors alike.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the New York Mets.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Francisco Lindor has experienced some negative variance in regards to his home runs this year; his 23.1 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is deflated compared to his 33.9 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The New York Mets bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Luis Ortiz has been granted less leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, tallying an -9.8 fewer adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

In the past 14 days, Edward Olivares's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.5% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

In today's game, Andrew McCutchen is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 33.9% rate (80th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 51 of their last 85 games (+13.35 Units / 14% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 51 of their last 80 games (+17.50 Units / 18% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+8.70 Units / 64% ROI)

New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: New York Mets 4.92 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.49

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.