Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick – 5/26/2025

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face the Minnesota Twins on May 26, 2025, the stakes are high for both teams, though neither is in a playoff position at the moment. Tampa Bay currently sits at .500 with a record of 26-26, while Minnesota holds a solid 29-23 mark, making this an intriguing American League matchup.

In their last outings, the Rays showcased a commanding performance, blanking their opponents 13-0, while the Twins faced a narrow defeat, losing 2-1. This sets the stage for a competitive series opener at George M. Steinbrenner Field, where each team will look to build momentum.

The pitching matchup features Zack Littell for the Rays, who is coming off a strong start where he allowed just 2 earned runs over 5 innings. Despite a 3-5 record and an ERA of 4.25 this season, Littell's underlying statistics indicate he's been somewhat lucky, with a 5.42 FIP suggesting potential struggles ahead. His average projections suggest he’ll pitch about 5.6 innings while allowing 3.0 earned runs, but his tendency to allow 5.8 hits and 0.9 walks per game could be a concern against a disciplined Twins lineup.

For Minnesota, Chris Paddack toes the rubber. Paddack has a respectable ERA of 3.98, indicating a solid season despite being labeled a below-average pitcher in advanced metrics. He projects to pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing a similar 3.0 earned runs yet exhibiting issues with walks, projected at 1.4 per game.

Offensively, the Rays rank as the 24th worst in MLB, which could be a disadvantage against a Twins squad that, while average overall, boasts a more balanced lineup. With projections favoring the Rays’ implied team total at 4.66 runs, this game could very well hinge on Littell's ability to keep Minnesota's bats at bay.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

In his previous GS, Chris Paddack gave up a whopping 9 earned runs.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Willi Castro's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 90.6-mph figure last season has fallen to 86.6-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

In today's matchup, Harrison Bader is at a disadvantage facing the league's 7th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38.1% rate (97th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Zack Littell has recorded 17.8 outs per start this year, ranking in the 88th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Typically, bats like Danny Jansen who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Chris Paddack.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

It may be wise to expect better numbers for the Tampa Bay Rays offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 10th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 31 games (+9.65 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 44 games (+13.80 Units / 29% ROI)
• Willi Castro has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 15 away games (+5.80 Units / 29% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.9, Tampa Bay Rays 4.86

• Date: May 26, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Paddack - Twins
  • Zack Littell - Rays

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.