Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/1/2024

Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins

Jun 1, 2024

Houston Astros

Houston Astros
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: June 1, 2024
  • Venue: Minute Maid Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Joe Ryan - Twins
    • Framber Valdez - Astros

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Twins 110, Astros -130
Runline: Twins 1.5 -195, Astros -1.5 165
Over/Under Total: 7.5 -110

Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Minnesota Twins - 46% Minnesota Twins - 42%
Houston Astros - 54% Houston Astros - 58%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

On June 1, 2024, the Houston Astros will face off against the Minnesota Twins at Minute Maid Park. The Astros, currently having a tough season with a record of 25-33, will be hosting the Twins, who are enjoying a successful year with a record of 32-25. This American League matchup promises to be an exciting showdown between two teams with differing fortunes.

The Astros are projected to start left-handed pitcher Framber Valdez, who has a solid reputation as the 28th best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Valdez has started 8 games this year and holds a 3-3 Win/Loss record with an ERA of 4.34. However, his 3.26 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

On the other side, the Twins will send right-handed pitcher Joe Ryan to the mound. Ryan has been outstanding this season, ranking as the 14th best starting pitcher in MLB according to our Power Rankings. With 11 games started, he boasts a 4-3 Win/Loss record and an impressive 2.96 ERA.

The Astros offense has been performing well, ranking as the 5th best in MLB this season. They have been consistent in team batting average and home runs, ranking 14th and 9th respectively. However, their stolen bases rank only 12th among MLB teams. In contrast, the Twins offense ranks 14th overall and excels in team home runs, ranking 7th, but struggles in team batting average, ranking 22nd, and stolen bases, ranking 24th.

The Astros will look to their best hitter, who has played in a significant number of games, and the Twins will rely on their own standout player. Over the past week, the Astros have observed Alex Bregman as their top hitter, recording 8 hits, 4 runs, 5 RBIs, and 3 home runs, with a batting average of .286 and a 0.989 OPS. Meanwhile, the Twins' Trevor Larnach has emerged as their best hitter in the same time frame, with 5 RBIs, 2 home runs, and a notable 1.026 OPS.

In terms of pitching matchups, Valdez, a low-strikeout pitcher, will face the high-strikeout Twins offense, which ranks first in the league in strikeouts. This could give Valdez an advantage as he capitalizes on the Twins' weakness. Conversely, Ryan, a high-strikeout pitcher, will go up against the Astros' low-strikeout offense, which ranks fifth in the league in strikeouts. This could pose a challenge for Ryan as he faces a team proficient in making contact.

According to the current odds, the Astros have an implied team total of 3.93 runs, while the Twins have a lower implied team total of 3.57 runs. The game total is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a low-scoring affair. The Astros are favored with a moneyline of -130, giving them a 54% implied win probability, while the Twins are considered underdogs with a moneyline of +110, indicating a 46% implied win probability.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Considering that flyball pitchers have a notable edge over flyball bats, Joe Ryan and his 42.2% underlying FB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good position in today's game facing 2 opposing FB bats.

  • This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Batters such as Byron Buxton with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Framber Valdez who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

  • This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Ranking 3rd-steepest in the majors since the start of last season, Minnesota Twins hitters as a group have compiled a 14.3° launch angle (a reliable standard to study the ability to lift the ball for power).

  • A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

This year, Framber Valdez has added a new pitch to his arsenal (a slider), working it in on 7% of his pitches.

  • Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.

Yordan Alvarez's 17.7% Barrel% (an advanced metric to evaluate power) ranks in the 99th percentile since the start of last season.

  • Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Houston's 88.6-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is one of the worst in the majors: #23 overall.

  • Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 42 games (+10.60 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.20 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 45 games (+10.40 Units / 18% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 3.63 vs Houston Astros 4.04

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+104
32% MIN
-123
68% HOU

Total Pick Consensus

7.5/-118
5% UN
7.5/-102
95% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-198
49% MIN
-1.5/+164
51% HOU

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
MIN
Team Stats
HOU
3.89
ERA
3.79
.235
Batting Avg Against
.237
1.20
WHIP
1.26
.293
BABIP
.289
7.3%
BB%
8.7%
25.8%
K%
24.0%
74.0%
LOB%
75.3%
.237
Batting Avg
.251
.416
SLG
.417
.732
OPS
.740
.316
OBP
.324
MIN
Team Records
HOU
27-18
Home
28-20
27-23
Road
22-25
38-32
vRHP
37-30
16-9
vLHP
13-15
20-25
vs>.500
16-25
34-16
vs<.500
34-20
6-4
Last10
7-3
13-7
Last20
15-5
20-10
Last30
20-10
J. Ryan
F. Valdez
126.0
Innings
149.2
22
GS
23
9-8
W-L
9-8
4.43
ERA
3.31
10.86
K/9
8.90
1.79
BB/9
2.16
1.79
HR/9
0.90
74.3%
LOB%
72.8%
14.5%
HR/FB%
14.2%
4.15
FIP
3.44
3.81
xFIP
3.29
.239
AVG
.225
29.1%
K%
24.6%
4.8%
BB%
6.0%
3.44
SIERA
3.57

J. Ryan

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/3 BAL
Zimmermann N/A
W7-2 N/A
4.2
6
2
2
3
1
57-81
4/27 DET
Pineda N/A
W5-0 N/A
7
1
0
0
9
1
58-90
4/21 KC
Greinke N/A
W1-0 N/A
6
2
0
0
5
1
57-85
4/15 BOS
Pivetta N/A
W8-4 N/A
6
5
1
1
7
0
60-82
4/8 SEA
Ray N/A
L1-2 N/A
4
2
2
2
4
4
42-70

F. Valdez

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/1 TOR
Gausman N/A
L2-3 N/A
6.1
2
3
3
2
2
61-101
4/25 TEX
Dunning N/A
L2-6 N/A
6
4
1
0
5
2
60-97
4/19 LAA
Sandoval N/A
L2-7 N/A
4.1
8
6
6
3
4
50-80
4/13 ARI
Kelly N/A
L2-3 N/A
3
2
1
1
3
5
40-75
4/7 LAA
Ohtani N/A
W3-1 N/A
6.2
2
0
0
6
1
54-84

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
MIN HOU
MIN HOU
Consensus
+110
-125
+104
-123
+110
-130
+105
-125
-102
-116
+104
-122
+102
-121
+102
-121
+110
-130
+100
-120
+105
-130
+110
-130
Open
Current
Book
MIN HOU
MIN HOU
Consensus
-1.5 (+162)
+1.5 (-197)
+1.5 (-201)
-1.5 (+170)
+1.5 (-198)
-1.5 (+164)
+1.5 (-198)
-1.5 (+164)
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-188)
-1.5 (+168)
+1.5 (-205)
-1.5 (+165)
+1.5 (-220)
-1.5 (+170)
+1.5 (-225)
+1.5 (-205)
-1.5 (+162)
+1.5 (-205)
-1.5 (+170)
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+155)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
7.5 (-106)
7.5 (-115)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
7.5 (-102)
7.5 (-118)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-115)
8.0 (-103)
8.0 (-120)
7.5 (-108)
7.5 (-112)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
7.5 (+105)
7.5 (-125)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-115)