Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction – 5/1/2025

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

On May 1, 2025, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Minnesota Twins at Progressive Field in a crucial American League Central matchup. Both teams are looking to gain traction in a competitive division, but their recent performances tell a different story. The Guardians are currently sitting at 17-13, enjoying a solid season, while the Twins are struggling with a 13-18 record, marking them as one of the weaker teams in the league.

In this game, it will be Ben Lively taking the mound for Cleveland. Although Lively has had a rough start to the season with a 1-2 record and a 4.40 ERA, he faces a Twins offense that ranks 21st in the league and has been unable to generate consistent power, hitting just 25 home runs this year. Lively's high flyball rate (45 FB%) could play in his favor against a team that struggles to capitalize on such opportunities.

Simeon Woods Richardson, the projected starter for the Twins, has been somewhat average this season, boasting a 2-2 record and a 4.07 ERA. However, his underlying metrics suggest he could be in for a tough outing, as his 5.62 xERA indicates he may have been fortunate so far this season.

Offensively, the Guardians rank 20th overall, which is slightly better than the Twins' 21st place. With both teams having a high implied team total of 4.50 runs, the matchup is expected to be competitive. The Guardians' elite bullpen, ranked 1st in MLB, should provide them with an edge late in the game, especially if Lively can manage to keep the Twins at bay early on.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Simeon Woods Richardson was firing on all cylinders in his last game started and allowed 2 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Since the start of last season, the hardest ball Carlos Correa has hit reached a maximum exit velocity of 113.9 mph (an advanced metric to evaluate power), placing in the 91st percentile.

• If a player can hit the ball hard even once, it has great predictive power over his ability to do it again. If he's never hit the ball hard, it's a sign of a lack of power.

Byron Buxton pulls many of his flyballs (42.9% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ben Lively is expected to post an average of 4.1 strikeouts in this game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Extreme groundball hitters like Jose Ramirez generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Simeon Woods Richardson.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Bo Naylor (the Guardians's expected catcher today) profiles as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.85 Units / 41% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 19 games (+6.00 Units / 26% ROI)
• Mickey Gasper has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+6.25 Units / 88% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.71, Cleveland Guardians 4.43

• Date: May 1, 2025
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Simeon Woods Richardson - Twins
  • Ben Lively - Guardians

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