Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Pick – 4/29/2025

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians will host the Minnesota Twins on April 29, 2025, in a crucial matchup between two teams in the American League Central. The Guardians, sitting at 15-13, have been performing well above average this season, while the Twins, at 13-16, are struggling with a disappointing record. In their last encounter yesterday, the Twins decisively triumphed over the Guardians with an 11-1 rout, potentially giving them a psychological edge entering today's game.

Tanner Bibee is projected to take the mound for the Guardians, and while his 5.19 ERA is concerning, he ranks as the 79th best starting pitcher in MLB this season, indicating he's been relatively effective at times. Bibee's last performance on April 22 showcased his potential as he pitched 6 innings, allowing just 2 earned runs with 5 strikeouts. The projections estimate he will pitch approximately 5.9 innings today while allowing around 2.6 earned runs, which should keep Cleveland competitive.

On the other side, Chris Paddack will start for Minnesota, and his struggles this season are evident. With a 6.45 ERA and a 0-3 record, Paddack has found it hard to contain opposing hitters. Projections suggest he may allow 2.7 earned runs in about 5.3 innings, but his high walk rate could present opportunities for the Guardians to capitalize.

The Cleveland Guardians' offense ranks 19th overall, but they hold an advantage over the 22nd-ranked Twins offense. With the Guardians holding a strong bullpen rated 4th in MLB, they may look to leverage their depth in today's game. Currently favored at a moneyline of -155, the Guardians have an implied team total of 4.66 runs, setting the stage for what could be a pivotal game in this series.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Chris Paddack has gone to his non-fastballs 9.5% less often this season (47.6%) than he did last year (57.1%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Byron Buxton has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 96-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 91.2-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Minnesota Twins have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (DaShawn Keirsey Jr., Byron Buxton, Edouard Julien).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Tanner Bibee's fastball spin rate has fallen 165 rpm this year (2196 rpm) below where it was last year (2361 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Kyle Manzardo is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Minnesota (#2-best on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Cleveland Guardians bullpen profiles as the 4th-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+4.05 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.60 Units / 29% ROI)
• Nolan Jones has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+14.05 Units / 31% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.2, Cleveland Guardians 4.52

• Date: April 29, 2025
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Paddack - Twins
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians

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