Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox Pick – 4/2/2025

Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

As the Chicago White Sox host the Minnesota Twins on April 2, 2025, both teams are struggling early this season. The White Sox sit at 2-3, while the Twins have a record of just 1-4. Neither team is shining in the American League Central, showcasing their underwhelming offensive and pitching performances thus far. In their last matchup, the Twins managed to edge out the White Sox, a game that highlighted both squads' current woes.

On the mound, Sean Burke is projected to start for the White Sox, and while he has an impressive 0.00 ERA after one start, his xFIP of 4.98 suggests a regression could be on the horizon. Burke's ability to last just 4.8 innings on average coupled with allowing 4.3 hits and 2.0 walks per game raises concerns about his long-term viability. Meanwhile, Pablo Lopez takes the ball for the Twins, bringing a solid 3.60 ERA and a favorable 2.80 xFIP. Lopez's ability to pitch deeper into games, averaging 6.0 innings, positions him as the more dependable choice in this matchup.

Offensively, the White Sox rank a dismal 31st in MLB, while the Twins fare slightly better at 29th. It’s worth noting that Chicago's power numbers are surprisingly middle-of-the-pack, as they rank 19th in home runs. However, with Lopez’s high groundball rate of 68%, he may neutralize this power, forcing the White Sox into weak contact.

The projections indicate that the Twins have a higher expected team total of 4.28 runs compared to the White Sox's 3.22 runs, making Minnesota a betting favorite at -185. Yet, given the struggles of both lineups, this game could present opportunities for bettors to capitalize on potential upsets amid a low total of 7.5 runs.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Pablo Lopez is an extreme groundball pitcher (45.7% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Guaranteed Rate Field — the #3 HR venue in MLB — in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Matt Wallner's 17.3% Barrel% (a reliable stat to assess power) grades out in the 97th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Byron Buxton pulls many of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Sean Burke will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against 6 opposing bats in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Travis Jankowski can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

It may be best to expect better numbers for the Chicago White Sox offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball since the start of last season.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 85 games (+12.20 Units / 13% ROI)

• Date: April 2, 2025
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Pablo Lopez - Twins
  • Sean Burke - White Sox

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.