Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox Pick – 5/2/2025

Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox will host the Minnesota Twins on May 2, 2025, at Fenway Park in what marks the first game of their series. The Red Sox currently sit with a record of 17-16, indicating an above-average season. In contrast, the Twins are struggling at 13-19, showcasing a notably poor performance thus far.

In their most recent contests, the Red Sox's pitching staff has been impressive, with Brayan Bello projected to take the mound. Bello is enjoying a solid start to the season with a 2-0 record and a great ERA of 3.27, although advanced metrics suggest he might be due for some regression. He faces a Twins lineup that ranks 22nd in MLB, a team that has found little success at the plate this year. Bello's groundball tendencies should mitigate the Twins' lack of power, as they have hit only 25 home runs this season, the 6th least in the league.

On the other side, Joe Ryan, who boasts a strong 3.18 ERA and ranks 25th among MLB starters, will take the mound for the Twins. Ryan's high strikeout rate, coupled with the Red Sox’s propensity to strike out—ranking 2nd in MLB—could give him the edge in this matchup. However, his ability to limit walks will be tested against a Red Sox squad that ranks 3rd in drawing walks.

The Red Sox offense ranks 6th overall and is bolstered by a dynamic performance from their best hitter, who has been on a tear lately. This contrasts sharply with the Twins' 22nd-ranked offense. Given the projections for both pitchers and the general dynamics of the teams, Boston is set up for a favorable outcome in this matchup, despite the betting markets indicating a close contest with a game total of 9.0 runs and both teams at a -110 moneyline. Expect a competitive game, but Boston's strengths could shine through.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Joe Ryan has used his secondary pitches 10.6% less often this year (35%) than he did last year (45.6%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Byron Buxton is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Boston (#3-best on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Byron Buxton pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.7% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

The Boston Red Sox outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-strongest among every team today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Rafael Devers has made notable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 23% seasonal rate to 30.8% in the last two weeks.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Carlos Narvaez (the Red Sox's expected catcher today) grades out as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.25 Units / 50% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games (+8.45 Units / 32% ROI)
• Ty France has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 6 games (+7.20 Units / 83% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.29, Boston Red Sox 4.61

• Date: May 2, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joe Ryan - Twins
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.