Minnesota Twins vs Atlanta Braves Prediction – 4/20/2025

Minnesota Twins vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves will host the Minnesota Twins in an interleague matchup on April 20, 2025, at Truist Park. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Braves sitting at 7-13 and the Twins at 7-14. The Braves are currently ranked 21st in MLB for their offense, while the Twins find themselves even lower at 27th. This series marks a critical juncture for both teams as they look to turn their fortunes around.

In their last game, the Braves picked up a win over the Twins. They are projected to start Grant Holmes, who has a mixed record with a 1-1 win/loss this season and an ERA of 3.78 that suggests he has been somewhat fortunate. Although Holmes's xFIP of 4.64 indicates potential regression, he faces a Twins offense that has struggled to generate power, ranking 6th least in home runs this season. This could work in Holmes's favor as he is a high-flyball pitcher, which may diminish the risk of surrendering home runs.

On the other hand, the Twins will counter with Joe Ryan, who has been impressive, boasting an ERA of 2.45 and ranking 26th among MLB starters. Ryan's projections suggest he will pitch around 5.5 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs, which is indicative of his consistent performance this season.

With the Braves holding an average implied team total of 3.84 runs and the Twins a lower total of 3.66 runs, the close moneyline odds reflect the tightly matched nature of this game. Bettors might want to consider that despite the Braves' struggles, they have a slight edge, especially with Holmes facing a weaker offense.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Joe Ryan is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.3% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #25 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Trevor Larnach's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 93.2-mph EV last season has fallen off to 85.6-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Minnesota Twins bats as a unit grade out 29th- in the majors for power this year when using their 91.1-mph exit velocity on flyballs.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Grant Holmes must realize this, because he has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches a lot since the start of last season: 61.1% of the time, ranking in the 83rd percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Extreme flyball batters like Ozzie Albies usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Joe Ryan.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Today, Sean Murphy is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 35.3% rate (89th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.55 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.55 Units / 53% ROI)
• Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+5.65 Units / 40% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.62, Atlanta Braves 4.55

• Date: April 20, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joe Ryan - Twins
  • Grant Holmes - Braves

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