Milwaukee Brewers vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction – 5/10/2025

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to take on the Milwaukee Brewers on May 10, 2025, at George M. Steinbrenner Field, both teams are looking to assert themselves in a tightly contested matchup. The Rays enter the game with a record of 17-21, while the Brewers sit slightly ahead at 19-20. The last game between these two teams saw the Rays win at home, which adds an edge to today's rematch.

Taj Bradley is projected to start for Tampa Bay, and while he holds a 3-2 record with an ERA of 4.43, advanced projections suggest he's been somewhat unlucky, as evidenced by his xERA of 3.67, indicating potential for improved performance. The Rays' offense, ranking 23rd overall in MLB, has been underwhelming but boasts the 5th best in stolen bases, showcasing a different type of offensive threat. They are projected to score a high 4.97 runs today, which could be crucial if Bradley can keep Milwaukee's bats quiet.

On the other side, Tobias Myers takes the mound for the Brewers. Despite a decent ERA of 3.65, projections indicate he may have benefited from a bit of luck, with a significantly higher xFIP of 5.69. Coupled with the Brewers’ lackluster offensive output—21st in MLB—the pressure will be on Myers to deliver against a Rays lineup that has struggled overall.

With both teams showcasing weak offensive rankings but impressive stolen base stats, today's game has the potential to be a battle. The Rays' bullpen ranks 14th, while the Brewers' sits 20th, further tipping the scale in favor of Tampa Bay should the game come down to the late innings. As the odds suggest a close contest, expect both teams to fight hard for the win.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Tobias Myers is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.9% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #10 HR venue among all parks in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

There has been a decrease in Joey Ortiz's average exit velocity this season, from 87.8 mph last year to 83.2 mph now

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Milwaukee Brewers batters as a group place 30th- in baseball for power this year when using their 6.1% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Taj Bradley's curveball rate has increased by 6% from last year to this one (9% to 15%) .

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Extreme groundball bats like Travis Jankowski tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Tobias Myers.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+6.55 Units / 41% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 36 games (+5.80 Units / 15% ROI)
• Joseph Ortiz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.55 Units / 59% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.99, Tampa Bay Rays 4.86

• Date: May 10, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tobias Myers - Brewers
  • Taj Bradley - Rays

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