Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Pick – 4/26/2025

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

On April 26, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Busch Stadium in a critical matchup within the National League Central. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Cardinals sitting at 11-15 and the Brewers slightly better at 13-14. In their most recent outing, the Cardinals defeated the Brewers in the first game of this series.

The Cardinals are projected to start Sonny Gray, who has been a bright spot in an otherwise disappointing season. Gray boasts a perfect 3-0 record and a solid ERA of 3.41, ranking as the 26th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. However, he faces a challenge as he is projected to allow an average of 4.4 hits and 1.7 walks today, which could put him in a tight spot against a Brewers lineup that has shown some offensive spark.

On the other side, the Brewers will send Quinn Priester to the mound. While Priester has an impressive ERA of 1.93, his xFIP of 4.30 suggests he may have been riding his luck thus far. His strikeout rate is concerning at just 3.8 strikeouts per game, which could be an issue against a Cardinals offense that ranks 6th overall in MLB and 2nd in batting average.

With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, sportsbooks are favoring the Cardinals, who have an implied team total of 4.08 runs compared to the Brewers' 3.42 runs. This matchup presents an opportunity for the Cardinals to bounce back and capitalize on their strong offensive capabilities against a pitcher who may be due for regression.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

With a 0.69 disparity between Quinn Priester's 6.22 K/9 and his 6.91 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the league since the start of last season in terms of strikeouts and ought to positively regress going forward.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

William Contreras has struggled with his Barrel%; his 10% rate last year has dropped off to 4% this season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The 5.9% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers ranks them as the #29 group of hitters in the game this year by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Sonny Gray's 2514.8-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season is in the 95th percentile among all starters.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

From last season to this one, Pedro Pages's flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 90.7 mph to 84.6 mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Nolan Arenado pulls many of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game's 8th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+4.45 Units / 48% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 22 games (+12.00 Units / 45% ROI)
• Sal Frelick has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.70 Units / 23% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 3.78, St. Louis Cardinals 3.72

• Date: April 26, 2025
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Quinn Priester - Brewers
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals

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