Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Pick – 4/25/2025

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

On April 25, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will face off against the Milwaukee Brewers at Busch Stadium in a National League Central matchup. Currently, the Cardinals sit at 10-15, while the Brewers hold a slightly better record at 13-13. This is a crucial game for the Cardinals, who are struggling this season and need to string together some wins to avoid falling further behind.

In their latest contests, the Cardinals’ pitching has been a focal point, with Matthew Liberatore projected to start. Liberatore, who has a Win/Loss record of 1-2 this year but boasts a solid ERA of 3.60, has been marked as an underperformer based on his #121 ranking among MLB starters. While his ERA suggests he has been effective, his 2.79 xFIP indicates he could be due for better results moving forward. However, he has struggled with allowing 5.1 hits and 1.7 walks per game, which could be a concern against a Milwaukee lineup that has shown the ability to capitalize on mistakes.

On the other side, Brewers' Chad Patrick will take the mound, carrying a stellar 2.11 ERA. Despite that, his 4.38 xFIP suggests he may be overachieving. Patrick’s current form could be a double-edged sword; while he’s been effective, projecting 5.4 innings and allowing 2.6 earned runs makes for a potentially tight matchup.

The Cardinals’ offense has been a bright spot this season, ranking 6th overall in MLB, and they are 2nd in team batting average. If they can leverage their offensive firepower against Patrick, they have a solid chance to overcome their struggles. Meanwhile, the Brewers' offense ranks 19th overall, indicating they might find it challenging to keep pace against St. Louis's high-ranking offense.

With the Game Total set at 8.0 runs, this game promises to be competitive, and given the Cardinals' solid hitting against an average Brewers’ lineup, they may well exceed their implied team total of 4.23 runs.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Among all starting pitchers, Chad Patrick's fastball velocity of 86.7 mph ranks in the 1st percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme groundball batters like Christian Yelich tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Matthew Liberatore.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Milwaukee Brewers hitters jointly grade out 29th- in the game for power this year when assessing with their 6.1% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Given that groundball hitters perform worse against groundball pitchers, Matthew Liberatore (42.7% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 4 GB hitters in the opposing team's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Alec Burleson has struggled with his Barrel%; his 6.6% rate last year has fallen off to 0% this season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.7% — 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 8th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.60 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 24 games (+10.05 Units / 37% ROI)
• Brice Turang has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.50 Units / 25% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.35, St. Louis Cardinals 4.39

• Date: April 25, 2025
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chad Patrick - Brewers
  • Matthew Liberatore - Cardinals

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.