Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Picks 6/3/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 3, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryse Wilson - Brewers
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

On June 3, 2024, the Philadelphia Phillies will face off against the Milwaukee Brewers at Citizens Bank Park. This National League matchup is highly anticipated as both teams are having great seasons. The Phillies currently hold a record of 41-19, while the Brewers are not far behind with a record of 36-23.

The Phillies will send their ace, Zack Wheeler, to the mound. Wheeler, a right-handed pitcher, has been exceptional this season with a record of 6-3 and an impressive ERA of 2.32. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Wheeler is considered one of the top 5 starting pitchers in MLB, showcasing his elite skills on the field.

On the other side, the Brewers will counter with right-handed pitcher Bryse Wilson. Wilson has had a decent season with a record of 3-1 and an ERA of 3.19. However, our Power Rankings indicate that Wilson is one of the worst pitchers in MLB, suggesting that he may struggle against the Phillies' potent lineup.

This game marks the first in a series between these two teams. In their last respective games, the Phillies lost to the Cardinals by a score of 5-4, while the Brewers secured a victory against the White Sox with a score of 6-3. The Phillies were the favorites in their last game, with a closing Moneyline price of -140 and an implied win probability of 56%. The Brewers, on the other hand, were massive favorites in their last game, with a closing Moneyline price of -340 and an implied win probability of 74%.

When it comes to offense, the Phillies rank as the 4th best in MLB this season, showcasing their strong lineup. Bryce Harper has been their standout hitter, contributing significantly with 35 runs, 44 RBIs, and 14 home runs. The Brewers' offense, meanwhile, ranks as the 3rd best in MLB, with William Contreras leading the charge with 48 runs, 44 RBIs, and 8 home runs.

In terms of team rankings, the Phillies have the 4th best bullpen according to our Power Rankings, while the Brewers rank 9th. This suggests that the Phillies have a slight advantage in the late innings.

The game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring. The Phillies are heavily favored with a moneyline of -205, giving them an implied win probability of 65%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also projects the Phillies as the favorite with a win probability of 67%. Based on the current odds, the Phillies have a high implied team total of 4.98 runs, while the Brewers have a lower implied team total of 3.52 runs.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Considering the 1.87 gap between Bryse Wilson's 3.19 ERA and his 5.05 FIP, it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the majors this year and ought to perform worse in the future.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Sal Frelick is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen projects as the 9th-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Over his last 3 outings, Zack Wheeler has seen a big increase in his fastball velocity: from 94.4 mph over the whole season to 95.4 mph in recent games.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Cristian Pache's footspeed has improved this season. His 27.84 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 28.39 ft/sec now.

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

Bryce Harper has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 43 games (+16.90 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 31 away games (+8.95 Units / 24% ROI)
• Willy Adames has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+7.65 Units / 94% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 3.67 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.91

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