Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies Pick – 4/9/2025

Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers arrive at Coors Field for their matchup against the Colorado Rockies on April 9, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting situations. The Brewers currently boast a record of 6-5, showing signs of life with a recent stretch of solid play, while the Rockies are struggling at 2-8, mired in a dismal start to their season.

In their last outing, the Rockies faced off against the Brewers and fell short, further solidifying their bleak trajectory. Colorado will lean on Antonio Senzatela to break the streak. While Senzatela's 0.00 ERA indicates he hasn't allowed an earned run this year, his 4.83 xFIP suggests he's been somewhat fortunate, projecting a decline in future performances. The right-hander is expected to pitch around 4.9 innings, allowing an average of 3.2 earned runs and 6.4 hits, which could put his team in a tough spot.

On the other side, Tyler Alexander takes the mound for Milwaukee, bringing a 2.00 ERA to the table. Despite his high strikeout rate (27.3 K%), the left-hander's 5.13 xFIP raises concerns about sustainability. He is projected to allow a similar number of earned runs and hits as Senzatela, but his ability to strike out batters could prove pivotal against a Rockies offense that ranks 3rd in strikeouts.

Both teams’ offenses show weaknesses; the Rockies rank 20th in MLB, while the Brewers sit just a notch higher at 21st. However, the projections favor Milwaukee with a higher implied team total of 5.61 runs compared to Colorado's 4.89. Given Senzatela's underwhelming peripherals and Alexander's potential edge, the Brewers appear poised to capitalize and continue their upward momentum in this series.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Among every team on the slate today, the best infield defense is that of the the Milwaukee Brewers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Extreme flyball hitters like Christian Yelich tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Antonio Senzatela.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The 7.3% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers ranks them as the #25 squad in the majors since the start of last season by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Antonio Senzatela is an extreme groundball pitcher (47.4% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Coors Field — the #6 HR venue among all stadiums — in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Ezequiel Tovar has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 9.2% rate last season has dropped to 0% this year.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that the Colorado Rockies will score 5.52 runs on average in this matchup: the 2nd-most of all teams on the slate today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 125 games (+7.45 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 32 away games (+9.70 Units / 26% ROI)
• Christian Yelich has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 away games (+9.90 Units / 110% ROI)

• Date: April 9, 2025
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Alexander - Brewers
  • Antonio Senzatela - Rockies

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