Milwaukee Brewers vs Boston Red Sox Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 26, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Robert Gasser - Brewers
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

In an exciting Interleague matchup, the Boston Red Sox will face off against the Milwaukee Brewers on May 26, 2024, at Fenway Park. The Red Sox, with a record of 26-26 this season, are looking to improve their performance in what has been an average season so far. On the other hand, the Brewers are having a great season, boasting a record of 30-21.

The Red Sox will have home-field advantage as they host the Brewers. Tanner Houck, a right-handed pitcher, is projected to start for the Red Sox. With a 4-5 win/loss record and an impressive ERA of 1.94 this year, Houck has been a standout performer. However, his 2.84 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could face challenges going forward.

On the mound for the Brewers will be left-handed pitcher Robert Gasser. While Gasser has a solid 2-0 record and an excellent ERA of 2.65 this season, his 4.64 xFIP indicates that he may have been fortunate and could regress in future performances.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Houck is ranked as the 26th best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers, indicating his excellence. In contrast, Gasser is considered a below-average pitcher based on the same rankings.

The Red Sox offense has been performing well, ranking as the 8th best in MLB this season. They excel in team batting average, ranking 3rd in the league. However, their home run and stolen base rankings are average. The Brewers' offense, on the other hand, ranks as the 5th best in MLB. While they struggle with team batting average and home runs, they have a good ranking in stolen bases.

Considering the projected performance of the starting pitchers, Houck is expected to pitch around 5.8 innings, allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs. He is also projected to strike out 5.7 batters but give up 5.7 hits and 1.7 walks. Gasser, on the other hand, is projected to pitch around 5.0 innings, allowing an average of 2.9 earned runs. He is expected to strike out 4.6 batters but surrender 5.7 hits and 1.4 walks.

Based on the current odds, the Red Sox are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -145 and an implied win probability of 57%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also favors the Red Sox with a projected win probability of 57%. The Red Sox have a high implied team total of 4.82 runs for this game, while the Brewers have an average implied team total of 4.18 runs.

It's important to note that while the Red Sox have the advantage in the projections and betting odds, the Brewers have been having a strong season. This sets the stage for an exciting and competitive matchup between two talented teams.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

As a result of his huge platoon split, Robert Gasser encounters a tough challenge going up against 7 hitters in the projected offense of the opposite hand today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Blake Perkins's quickness has dropped off this year. His 30.02 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 29.08 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The underlying talent of the Milwaukee Brewers projected lineup today (.316 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount worse than their .327 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

In his previous game started, Tanner Houck was firing on all cylinders and allowed 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Connor Wong has been lucky this year, posting a .378 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .303 — a .075 deviation.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox' bullpen ranks as the 5th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 37 games (+9.85 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 51 games (+9.00 Units / 15% ROI)
• Tyler O'Neill has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+8.65 Units / 29% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.55 vs Boston Red Sox 5.03

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