Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Angels Prediction For 6/19/2024

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers

Jun 19, 2024

Los Angeles Angels

Los Angeles Angels
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels Details

  • Date: June 19, 2024
  • Venue: Angel Stadium
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Freddy Peralta - Brewers
    • Tyler Anderson - Angels

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Brewers -165, Angels 145
Runline: Brewers -1.5 100, Angels 1.5 -120
Over/Under Total: 8.5 -110

Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Milwaukee Brewers - 60% Milwaukee Brewers - 61.53%
Los Angeles Angels - 40% Los Angeles Angels - 38.47%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Angels and Milwaukee Brewers face off on June 19, 2024, at Angel Stadium for the third game in their interleague series. The Angels are struggling this season with a 29-43 record, while the Brewers are enjoying a strong campaign at 42-30. In the previous game, the Brewers showcased their prowess, edging out the Angels in a close contest.

Tyler Anderson, the Angels' left-handed starter, will take the mound with a 6-6 record and an impressive 2.58 ERA this season. However, his 5.08 xFIP indicates that he has been fortunate and may regress. Anderson's projections for today are less promising, with 3.1 earned runs and 2.2 walks expected over 5.4 innings. He faces a Brewers offense that ranks 6th in MLB, with elite patience and the 4th most walks in the league. This matchup could spell trouble for Anderson, given his high walk rate of 10.6%.

On the other side, the Brewers will counter with Freddy Peralta, who holds a 4-4 record and a 4.38 ERA. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Peralta's 3.39 xFIP suggests he's been unlucky and is due for better performance. He is projected to allow just 2.3 earned runs and 1.6 walks over 5.8 innings, with a strong 6.7 strikeouts. The Angels' offense, ranked 16th overall, may find it challenging to break through against Peralta despite their respectable power numbers, including an 8th-place ranking in home runs.

The Angels' bullpen, ranked 30th by advanced-stat Power Rankings, contrasts sharply with the Brewers' 7th-ranked bullpen. This disparity further tilts the scales in favor of Milwaukee, especially in the later innings.

Nolan Schanuel has been a bright spot for the Angels, hitting .400 with a 1.156 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, Christian Yelich leads the Brewers with a .421 average and three stolen bases in his last five games.

With the Brewers favored at -165 and an implied win probability of 60%, they appear to have the upper hand in this matchup. The Angels, as +145 underdogs, will need a standout performance to turn the tide.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense projects as the strongest among every team playing today.

  • Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Joey Ortiz is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

  • The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Milwaukee Brewers have been the luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress the rest of the season

  • When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Tyler Anderson is an extreme flyball pitcher (40% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #9 HR venue among all stadiums in this matchup.

  • This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Zach Neto has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.4-mph to 93.7-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games.

  • Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Los Angeles Angels bullpen grades out as the worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

  • The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 21 of their last 31 games (+7.70 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 57 games (+7.30 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Willy Adames has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+14.70 Units / 49% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 5.24 vs Los Angeles Angels 3.85

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-190
85% MIL
+158
15% LAA

Total Pick Consensus

8.0/-105
5% UN
8.0/-115
95% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/-115
84% MIL
+1.5/-105
16% LAA

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
MIL
Team Stats
LAA
4.04
ERA
4.58
.232
Batting Avg Against
.247
1.22
WHIP
1.39
.275
BABIP
.301
8.2%
BB%
9.9%
23.0%
K%
23.6%
73.6%
LOB%
71.2%
.233
Batting Avg
.251
.377
SLG
.437
.689
OPS
.761
.312
OBP
.324
MIL
Team Records
LAA
29-17
Home
22-29
28-26
Road
21-28
44-30
vRHP
35-47
13-13
vLHP
8-10
31-27
vs>.500
27-42
26-16
vs<.500
16-15
5-5
Last10
6-4
10-10
Last20
9-11
16-14
Last30
15-15
F. Peralta
T. Anderson
128.0
Innings
109.0
23
GS
20
9-8
W-L
5-4
4.08
ERA
5.28
11.04
K/9
7.60
3.38
BB/9
3.88
1.34
HR/9
0.99
71.5%
LOB%
67.9%
14.5%
HR/FB%
7.6%
4.01
FIP
4.42
3.76
xFIP
5.36
.217
AVG
.272
29.4%
K%
18.9%
9.0%
BB%
9.6%
3.72
SIERA
5.13

F. Peralta

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/4 CIN
rrez N/A
W18-4 N/A
5
5
3
3
7
2
63-98
4/28 PIT
Quintana N/A
W3-2 N/A
6
3
0
0
7
0
59-92
4/22 PHI
Suarez N/A
L2-4 N/A
5
3
1
1
6
2
54-89
4/15 STL
Mikolas N/A
L1-10 N/A
3
7
6
6
4
2
49-77
4/10 CHC
Stroman N/A
W5-4 N/A
4
3
3
3
6
4
46-88

T. Anderson

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
4/29 DET
Alexander N/A
W5-1 N/A
5
5
1
1
3
1
47-69
4/23 SD
Darvish N/A
L2-3 N/A
4.2
4
2
2
4
3
51-80
10/3 LAA
Detmers N/A
L3-7 N/A
1.2
5
4
3
0
2
24-37
9/28 OAK
Bassitt N/A
W4-2 N/A
4
2
1
1
2
0
40-46
9/25 LAA
Barria N/A
L1-14 N/A
2
9
9
9
0
1
37-54

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
MIL LAA
MIL LAA
Consensus
-155
+135
-190
+158
-162
+136
-192
+160
-152
+128
-184
+154
-155
+132
-190
+155
-160
+135
-190
+158
-155
+125
-185
+150
Open
Current
Book
MIL LAA
MIL LAA
Consensus
-1.5 (+108)
+1.5 (-129)
-1.5 (-113)
+1.5 (-109)
-1.5 (+102)
+1.5 (-122)
-1.5 (-115)
+1.5 (-105)
-1.5 (+106)
+1.5 (-128)
-1.5 (-110)
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (+108)
+1.5 (-134)
-1.5 (-110)
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (+105)
+1.5 (-125)
-1.5 (-115)
+1.5 (-105)
-1.5 (+105)
+1.5 (-130)
-1.5 (-110)
+1.5 (-110)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.0 (-113)
8.0 (-108)
8.0 (-116)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.5 (-102)
8.5 (-120)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-109)
8.0 (-120)
8.0 (-103)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.5 (+100)
8.5 (-120)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.5 (+100)
8.5 (-120)