Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds Best Bet – 4/10/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Overview

• Date: April 10, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Wade Miley - Brewers
  • Hunter Greene - Reds
• Run Line: Brewers 1.5 -175, Reds -1.5 150
• Money Line: Brewers 115, Reds -135
• Total (Over/Under):9 -110

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Milwaukee Brewers - 45%
• Cincinnati Reds - 55%

Projected Win %:

• Milwaukee Brewers - 49.07%
• Cincinnati Reds - 50.93%

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Game Preview & Prediction

On April 10, 2024, the Cincinnati Reds will face off against the Milwaukee Brewers at Great American Ball Park. This National League Central matchup promises an exciting game between two division rivals.

Taking the mound for the Reds will be right-handed pitcher Hunter Greene. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Greene is ranked as the #49 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. He has had a solid start to the season, with an ERA of 2.53. However, his peripheral indicator suggests that he may regress going forward, as his xFIP is considerably higher than his ERA. Greene is projected to pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs while striking out an impressive 7.7 batters.

Left-handed pitcher Wade Miley will take the mound for the Brewers. Unfortunately, Miley has struggled this season, ranking as one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. He is projected to pitch around 4.3 innings, allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs while striking out 3.3 batters.

In terms of the overall team rankings, the Brewers have a stronger bullpen, ranked 8th best in MLB, compared to the Reds' bullpen, which is ranked 20th. However, the Reds have shown a more potent offense thus far.

Considering the current odds, the Reds are favored to win this game with a moneyline set at -135, implying a 55% chance of victory. The Brewers, with a moneyline of +115, have a 45% chance of winning. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating the expectation for a high-scoring game.

With the Reds having the advantage in terms of projected win probability, their strong offense, and a promising start to the season, they enter this game as the favorites. However, baseball is a game of surprises, and anything can happen on the diamond. Fans and bettors should prepare for an exciting clash between these division rivals.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Out of all the teams today, the best infield defense belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Extreme flyball batters like Christian Yelich are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Hunter Greene.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Milwaukee Brewers' bullpen ranks as the 8th-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Hunter Greene is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.4% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #1 HR venue among all major league parks in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Will Benson has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (60% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Will Benson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 11th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers 4.47 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.33

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