Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs Prediction For 7/24/2024

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Details

• Date: July 24, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joe Ross - Brewers
  • Justin Steele - Cubs

Betting Odds

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs host the Milwaukee Brewers on July 24, 2024, for the third game of their National League Central series at Wrigley Field. It's a matchup between two teams on different trajectories this season: The Cubs are having a below-average year with a 49-54 record, while the Brewers are enjoying a good season at 58-43.

Chicago is projected to start the left-handed Justin Steele, who has been brilliant this season with a 3.07 ERA and ranks as the #23 best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite his stellar ERA, Steele's 3.60 xFIP suggests he's had some luck on his side and might regress. On the other hand, Milwaukee counters with Joe Ross, a right-hander with a 4.50 ERA. Ross's FIP of 3.94 indicates he's been unlucky and could perform better moving forward.

Steele's low-walk rate (5.4 BB%) will be tested against Milwaukee's patient lineup, which ranks 3rd in drawing walks. This dynamic could play in Steele's favor, as the Brewers may not be able to capitalize on their usual strength. Offensively, Chicago’s lineup ranks 19th in MLB but struggles with consistency, placing 25th in team batting average and 23rd in home runs.

Milwaukee's offense, meanwhile, ranks 8th overall, bolstered by their 5th ranked team batting average and 2nd in stolen bases. However, they sit at 20th in home runs, limiting their power threat. Over the past week, Jackson Chourio has been the standout for the Brewers, hitting .412 with a 1.059 OPS, adding 5 RBIs and 2 stolen bases in just four games. For the Cubs, Miguel Amaya has provided a spark, boasting a .667 average and 1.394 OPS over the last five games.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, favors the Cubs with a 58% win probability, slightly above their implied 56% from the betting odds. The Cubs are projected to score 4.10 runs, compared to the Brewers' 3.64. With Steele on the mound and the Cubs’ offense showing flashes of potential, Chicago looks poised to secure a crucial win in this divisional clash.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Joe Ross has averaged 14 outs per start this year, placing in the 9th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Jackson Chourio is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Christian Yelich has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 7th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Justin Steele's high utilization percentage of his fastball (64.8% this year) is likely harming his results, considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Dansby Swanson has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.6-mph to 93.1-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Chicago Cubs have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Michael Busch, Christopher Morel, Pete Crow-Armstrong).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 31 games at home (+10.95 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 57 of their last 99 games (+9.75 Units / 8% ROI)
• Willy Adames has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+5.70 Units / 63% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 3.63 vs Chicago Cubs 3.97

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