Miami Marlins vs Seattle Mariners Prediction – 4/26/2025

Miami Marlins vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

The Seattle Mariners and Miami Marlins face off today at T-Mobile Park for the second game of their series, following the Marlins' victory in yesterday's matchup. Both teams are in the midst of a competitive season, with the Mariners sitting at 14-12, representing an above-average performance, while the Marlins are struggling at 12-13, placing them below average in the standings.

Luis Castillo takes the mound for the Mariners, bringing a solid track record as he aims to improve on his 2-2 record and 4.44 ERA this season. Despite allowing a concerning 5.2 hits per game on average, his projections indicate he could pitch 6.3 innings while allowing only 2.4 earned runs and striking out 6.2 batters. This matchup benefits Castillo, as he faces a Marlins offense that ranks 6th in the league for fewest walks, making it less likely they can exploit his control issues.

On the other side, Connor Gillispie starts for the Marlins, struggling with a 0-2 record and an alarming 6.75 ERA. Although projections suggest he might perform slightly better than his numbers indicate, he still faces a daunting challenge against a Mariners lineup that ranks 9th in overall offensive power. Gillispie must contend with a Mariners offense that has hit 36 home runs this season, placing them 5th in the league.

With the Mariners being significant betting favorites at -220, their implied team total of 4.45 runs reflects confidence in their ability to capitalize on Gillispie's vulnerabilities. Meanwhile, the Marlins, with an implied total of just 3.05 runs, face an uphill battle. The low Game Total of 7.5 runs suggests a tight contest, but the Mariners' offensive prowess and Castillo's solid performance could lead to another victory for Seattle.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Considering that groundball pitchers hold a significant edge over groundball hitters, Connor Gillispie and his 40.3% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong spot in this outing going up against 3 opposing GB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Matt Mervis is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Jesus Sanchez has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Luis Castillo's higher utilization rate of his fastball this year (69.2 vs. 63.4% last season) is not ideal consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so J.P. Crawford has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Seattle Mariners have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Luke Raley, Dylan Moore, Cal Raleigh).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Run Line in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.90 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.05 Units / 37% ROI)
• Cal Raleigh has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+6.30 Units / 18% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Miami Marlins 3.58, Seattle Mariners 4.59

• Date: April 26, 2025
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Connor Gillispie - Marlins
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners

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