Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction – 4/20/2025

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

As the Philadelphia Phillies host the Miami Marlins at Citizens Bank Park on April 20, 2025, both teams come into this matchup with distinct trajectories. The Phillies are off to a strong start, holding a 13-8 record this season and showcasing a potent offense that ranks as the 10th best in MLB. Meanwhile, the Marlins are struggling at 8-12, sitting in the basement of the National League East and facing challenges offensively with the 26th worst home run output in the league.

In their last contest, the Phillies notched an impressive victory, which adds to their momentum as they look to continue their winning ways. Jesus Luzardo is projected to take the mound for Philadelphia, and he has been nothing short of excellent this year. With a 2-0 record and remarkable 2.31 ERA across four starts, Luzardo is ranked 41st among starters in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite a decent 2.95 xFIP suggesting some luck, he projects to pitch around 6.0 innings, allowing only 2.0 earned runs and striking out 7.0 batters on average.

On the other side, Miami counters with Connor Gillispie, who has struggled significantly with a 0-2 record and a dismal 6.63 ERA in his four starts. His projections are equally concerning, forecasting just 4.8 innings pitched with 2.7 earned runs allowed, alongside an average of 1.7 walks.

Given the Phillies' strong offensive showing and Luzardo's form against a Marlins lineup that lacks power, Philadelphia emerges as a massive betting favorite, with a moneyline of -300 and an implied team total of 5.35 runs. Meanwhile, the Marlins are projected for just 3.15 runs. The stage is set for the Phillies to continue their dominance against a challenging in-division rival.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Connor Gillispie has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, tallying an -10.3 fewer adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Extreme flyball hitters like Dane Myers tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Jesus Luzardo.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Miami Marlins have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby, Jesus Sanchez).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Jesus Luzardo has relied on his slider 5.7% more often this year (34.9%) than he did last year (29.2%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Alec Bohm is projected to bat 7th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies' bullpen projects as the 6th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• Max Kepler has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+6.05 Units / 17% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Miami Marlins 3.54, Philadelphia Phillies 4.84

• Date: April 20, 2025
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Connor Gillispie - Marlins
  • Jesus Luzardo - Phillies

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