Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction – 4/30/2025

Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to host the Miami Marlins on April 30, 2025, they come off a strong series performance, having secured a victory in yesterday's game. The Dodgers, sitting at 20-10, are enjoying a solid season, currently positioned well in the National League. In contrast, the Marlins struggle with a 12-17 record, marking them as one of the weaker teams this year.

The matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Tony Gonsolin for the Dodgers and Cal Quantrill for the Marlins. Gonsolin, despite being ranked as the 145th best starting pitcher in MLB per advanced stats, has been relatively consistent, projecting to pitch 5.2 innings while allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs. However, his tendency to give up 5.2 hits and 1.3 walks per game raises some concerns.

On the other hand, Cal Quantrill has not found his footing this season, holding a troubling 7.83 ERA and a 4.92 xFIP that suggests he could be due for some positive regression. He projects to pitch only 4.6 innings with an average of 3.4 earned runs, which is a significant liability against a potent Dodgers lineup.

The Dodgers boast the 5th best offense in MLB, highlighted by their 2nd place ranking in home runs. In contrast, the Marlins rank 15th in offensive capabilities, with a solid batting average but a lack of power, sitting 21st in home runs. This disparity in offensive firepower heavily favors the Dodgers, who are projected to score 5.93 runs compared to the Marlins’ 3.57.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Cal Quantrill has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 9.7% more often this year (69.5%) than he did last year (59.8%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Liam Hicks has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 83.4-mph dropping to 79.4-mph in the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Miami Marlins have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Norby, Matt Mervis, Kyle Stowers).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Out of all the teams in action today, the 5th-worst outfield defense is that of the the Los Angeles Dodgers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Max Muncy is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Miami (#3-worst on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers' bullpen ranks as the 5th-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+4.75 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.50 Units / 50% ROI)
• Agustin Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+9.90 Units / 198% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.43, Los Angeles Dodgers 6.29

• Date: April 30, 2025
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cal Quantrill - Marlins
  • Tony Gonsolin - Dodgers

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