Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/9/2024

Miami Marlins

Miami Marlins

Jul 9, 2024

Houston Astros

Houston Astros
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros Details

  • Date: July 9, 2024
  • Venue: Minute Maid Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Trevor Rogers - Marlins
    • Ronel Blanco - Astros

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Marlins 195, Astros -225
Runline: Marlins 1.5 -110, Astros -1.5 -110
Over/Under Total: 8.5

Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Miami Marlins - 33% Miami Marlins - 40.18%
Houston Astros - 67% Houston Astros - 59.82%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros (46-44) will host the Miami Marlins (32-58) at Minute Maid Park on July 9, 2024, in what looks to be a favorable matchup for the home team. The Astros, who are having an average season, are currently 3rd in the AL West, while the Marlins, struggling with a dismal season, sit at the bottom of the NL East. This interleague contest marks the first game of the series.

The Astros will send right-hander Ronel Blanco (8-3, 2.53 ERA) to the mound. Despite his excellent ERA, Blanco's 4.22 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate this season. However, his high-flyball tendencies could play well against a Marlins lineup that ranks 30th in MLB in home runs. Additionally, Blanco's high walk rate (10.2 BB%) might be mitigated by Miami's impatience at the plate, as they draw the fewest walks in the league.

On the other side, the Marlins will counter with left-hander Trevor Rogers (1-9, 4.91 ERA). Rogers has struggled this season, and his low strikeout rate (18.2 K%) could be problematic against an Astros offense that strikes out the least in MLB. This disparity may allow Houston's potent lineup, which ranks 1st in team batting average and 9th in home runs, to capitalize on Rogers' weaknesses.

Houston's offense has been led by Yordan Alvarez over the last week. In his last five games, Alvarez has posted a .375 batting average with two home runs and seven RBIs, boasting an impressive 1.420 OPS. Meanwhile, Miami's Jesus Sanchez has been their standout performer, hitting .333 with two home runs and four RBIs in his last six games.

Both teams feature average bullpens, with the Astros ranked 12th and the Marlins 13th in the advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, given the Astros' superior offense and favorable pitching matchups, they enter this game as significant favorites with a moneyline of -205, implying a 65% win probability. The Marlins, as big underdogs at +175, face an uphill battle with just a 35% implied win probability.

With an implied team total of 4.67 runs for Houston and 3.33 for Miami, the Astros are expected to outscore their opponents. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, which is average. All signs point to a strong showing from Houston as they seek to start this series on a high note.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

The Houston Astros have 8 bats in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage over Trevor Rogers today.

  • Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Jesus Sanchez's average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 93.4-mph now compared to just 90.3-mph then.

  • Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

It may be sensible to expect improved performance for the Miami Marlins offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the unluckiest offense in the league this year.

  • When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Ronel Blanco's fastball velocity has fallen 1 mph this season (92.8 mph) below where it was last season (93.8 mph).

  • Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Mauricio Dubon has experienced some positive variance this year. His .304 mark has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .260.

  • xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Houston Astros bats as a group have been one of the best in baseball this year (10th-) as it relates to their 89-mph average exit velocity.

  • Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 90 games (+13.55 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 35 away games (+14.20 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 38 games (+10.65 Units / 27% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.37 vs Houston Astros 5.12

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+203
7% MIA
-245
93% HOU

Total Pick Consensus

8.5/-102
13% UN
8.5/-118
87% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-102
6% MIA
-1.5/-118
94% HOU

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
MIA
Team Stats
HOU
4.18
ERA
3.79
.242
Batting Avg Against
.237
1.28
WHIP
1.26
.302
BABIP
.289
8.3%
BB%
8.7%
25.2%
K%
24.0%
72.5%
LOB%
75.3%
.262
Batting Avg
.251
.402
SLG
.417
.719
OPS
.740
.317
OBP
.324
MIA
Team Records
HOU
20-33
Home
28-21
15-32
Road
24-27
28-36
vRHP
39-32
7-29
vLHP
13-16
22-43
vs>.500
18-26
13-22
vs<.500
34-22
3-7
Last10
6-4
7-13
Last20
12-8
12-18
Last30
20-10
T. Rogers
R. Blanco
18.0
Innings
50.0
4
GS
7
1-2
W-L
2-1
4.00
ERA
4.68
9.50
K/9
9.18
3.00
BB/9
5.04
1.00
HR/9
2.16
72.1%
LOB%
79.7%
10.5%
HR/FB%
18.5%
4.10
FIP
6.15
4.39
xFIP
5.16
.229
AVG
.250
24.1%
K%
23.4%
7.6%
BB%
12.8%
4.04
SIERA
4.86

T. Rogers

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/3 ARI
Castellanos N/A
L4-5 N/A
4.1
6
5
5
4
2
42-78
4/28 WSH
Corbin N/A
W3-2 N/A
6
2
1
1
4
2
58-91
4/22 ATL
Wright N/A
L0-3 N/A
5
4
1
0
4
2
63-95
4/16 PHI
Suarez N/A
L3-10 N/A
1.2
4
7
7
3
4
39-63
4/10 SF
DeSclafani N/A
L2-3 N/A
5
6
3
2
3
1
48-74

R. Blanco

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
MIA HOU
MIA HOU
Consensus
+178
-205
+203
-245
+170
-205
+195
-238
+188
-225
+200
-245
+188
-225
+215
-265
+192
-235
+205
-250
+180
-225
+200
-250
Open
Current
Book
MIA HOU
MIA HOU
Consensus
+1.5 (100)
-1.5 (+100)
+1.5 (+100)
-1.5 (-120)
+1.5 (100)
-1.5 (-105)
+1.5 (+100)
-1.5 (-120)
+1.5 (-105)
-1.5 (+100)
+1.5 (-105)
-1.5 (-114)
+1.5 (100)
-1.5 (+102)
+1.5 (+100)
-1.5 (-121)
+1.5 (110)
-1.5 (-105)
+1.5 (+110)
-1.5 (-130)
+1.5 (100)
-1.5 (-110)
+1.5 (+100)
-1.5 (-120)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.0 (-118)
8.0 (-102)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-116)
8.0 (-118)
8.0 (-102)
8.5 (-102)
8.5 (-118)
8.5 (-104)
8.5 (-118)
8.5 (+100)
8.5 (-122)
8.0 (-118)
8.0 (-103)
8.5 (-108)
8.5 (-112)
8.5 (+100)
8.5 (-120)
8.0 (-120)
8.0 (+100)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)