Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Prediction – 4/4/2025

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

As the Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins prepare to face off on April 4, 2025, at Truist Park, both teams find themselves at opposite ends of the performance spectrum this season. The Braves, struggling with a 0-7 record, are in dire need of a turnaround, while the Marlins boast a respectable 4-3 start. This matchup marks the first game in their series, and the Braves are looking to shake off a rough beginning.

On the mound, the Braves are projected to start Spencer Schwellenbach, who has emerged as a bright spot for the team despite their struggles. Schwellenbach currently ranks as the 17th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, with an immaculate ERA of 0.00 over his lone start this season. However, his xFIP of 3.64 suggests he may have benefitted from some good fortune. He projects to pitch around 5.9 innings and allow just 1.9 earned runs, which could provide the Braves with a much-needed boost.

Conversely, the Marlins will counter with Max Meyer, who has also had a solid start with a 1.59 ERA. However, his below-average ranking in the projections raises concerns about sustainability. Meyer projects to pitch only 4.8 innings, and his high strikeout rate might play into the Braves’ tendency to strike out, as they rank 4th in the league in that category.

With the Braves favored heavily at -225 on the moneyline, there’s a strong expectation for them to bounce back. If Schwellenbach can deliver on his projections and the Braves' offense can capitalize on Meyer’s weaknesses, they may finally get into the win column.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Dane Myers has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (50% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Miami Marlins bullpen grades out as the worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Matt Olson is likely to have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Michael Harris II hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 91 of their last 145 games (+37.10 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 80 away games (+13.25 Units / 15% ROI)
• Jonah Bride has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+4.25 Units / 85% ROI)

• Date: April 4, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Max Meyer - Marlins
  • Spencer Schwellenbach - Braves

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