Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins Prediction – 5/7/2025

On May 7, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at LoanDepot Park in what promises to be an intriguing National League matchup. The Marlins, struggling with a 14-21 record this season, are looking to turn things around against a Dodgers team that boasts a strong 24-12 record. In their previous game, the Marlins came out on top, in a shocking result between these National League teams.

Projected starters Valente Bellozo for the Marlins and Landon Knack for the Dodgers both have had their struggles this season. Bellozo, ranked as the 281st best starting pitcher in MLB, has an 0-2 record with a below-average ERA of 4.97 this year. His tendency to allow fly balls (52% FB%) could be problematic against the Dodgers, who rank 2nd in MLB with 58 home runs this season. The projections suggest Bellozo may struggle to keep the Dodgers' bats at bay, especially considering he is expected to pitch only 4.6 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs.

On the other side, Landon Knack, while not performing at an elite level either, has a slightly better outlook with a 1-0 record and an ERA of 7.27. His xFIP of 5.01 suggests he may have been unlucky this season, and the projections indicate he might perform better than his current numbers show. Knack is projected to pitch about 5.0 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs.

Offensively, the Dodgers rank 3rd in MLB, with a batting average of .276, while the Marlins sit at a more modest 17th in terms of overall offensive production. The Marlins have a solid batting average but rank only 19th in home runs, which could hinder their ability to keep pace with a Dodgers lineup that features some of the league's top hitters.

With a high Game Total of 9.5 runs, the odds favor the Dodgers significantly. Miami is a big underdog with a current moneyline of +195, suggesting that while they may struggle, they could surprise given the right circumstances.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Landon Knack is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #23 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Max Muncy is likely to have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen ranks as the 4th-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Valente Bellozo has utilized his off-speed and breaking balls 6.5% more often this year (69.2%) than he did last year (62.7%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Extreme flyball hitters like Ronny Simon usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Landon Knack.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Eric Wagaman hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 26 games (+8.40 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.60 Units / 11% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.80 Units / 49% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.63, Miami Marlins 4.27

• Date: May 7, 2025
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Landon Knack - Dodgers
  • Valente Bellozo - Marlins

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