Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies Prediction & Odds – 6/18/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers

Jun 18, 2024

Colorado Rockies

Colorado Rockies
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies Details

  • Date: June 18, 2024
  • Venue: Coors Field
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Walker Buehler - Dodgers
    • Austin Gomber - Rockies

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Dodgers -175, Rockies 155
Runline: Dodgers -1.5 -120, Rockies 1.5 100
Over/Under Total: 11.5 -110

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Los Angeles Dodgers - 62% Los Angeles Dodgers - 61.27%
Colorado Rockies - 38% Colorado Rockies - 38.73%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

The Colorado Rockies will host the Los Angeles Dodgers in the second game of their series on June 18, 2024, at Coors Field. This National League West matchup sees the Rockies struggling through a tough season with a 25-47 record, while the Dodgers are enjoying a strong campaign at 45-29. In yesterday's game, the Dodgers defeated the Rockies in a lopsided affair, highlighting the stark contrast between their seasons.

The Rockies are projected to start left-hander Austin Gomber, who has a 1-4 record and a 4.26 ERA over 13 starts this year. Advanced metrics suggest Gomber has been fortunate, as his 4.81 xERA indicates he might regress. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects Gomber to pitch only 4.7 innings and allow 3.4 earned runs, reinforcing the notion that he may struggle against the potent Dodgers lineup.

Walker Buehler will take the mound for the Dodgers. The right-hander has a 1-4 record with a 4.64 ERA in seven starts this season. However, his 3.88 xFIP suggests he's been a bit unlucky and could be due for better results. Buehler projects to pitch 5.1 innings while allowing 2.8 earned runs. Notably, Buehler's low walk rate (6.1%) could be a disadvantage against the Rockies, who have the 4th fewest walks in MLB. Yet, his ability to limit walks might mitigate this mismatch.

The Rockies' offense ranks 18th in MLB and has shown some promise, especially in batting average, where they rank 10th. However, their power has been lacking, with a meager 26th ranking in home runs. Hunter Goodman has been a bright spot recently, hitting .357 with three home runs and a 1.429 OPS over his last four games.

In contrast, the Dodgers boast the 1st ranked offense, with impressive 3rd place rankings in both batting average and home runs. Shohei Ohtani has been on a tear, hitting .360 with four home runs and a 1.404 OPS over his last seven games. Additionally, their bullpen ranks 4th, compared to the Rockies' 21st ranking.

Overall, the Dodgers are substantial favorites with a -180 moneyline and an implied win probability of 62%. While the Rockies' implied team total of 4.98 runs suggests they could put up a fight, the Dodgers' powerful offense and more reliable pitching staff give them a clear edge in this matchup.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

With 6 bats who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team's projected lineup, Walker Buehler will be at a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.

  • Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Andy Pages is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Colorado (#1-best of all teams today).

  • This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Shohei Ohtani ranks as the 4th-best batter in the majors.

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Among all the teams playing today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Colorado Rockies.

  • Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Brenton Doyle has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (97% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.

  • The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Compared to their .316 overall projected rate, the .295 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected lineup in this game suggests this version of the lineup quite a bit weaker than usual.

  • Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

  • The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 35 games (+8.00 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 47 games (+5.40 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Nolan Jones has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 26 games (+8.05 Units / 31% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 6.85 vs Colorado Rockies 5.09

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-193
89% LAD
+162
11% COL

Total Pick Consensus

11.0/-120
37% UN
11.0/+100
63% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/-130
96% LAD
+1.5/+110
4% COL

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
LAD
Team Stats
COL
4.26
ERA
5.51
.239
Batting Avg Against
.277
1.24
WHIP
1.51
.288
BABIP
.311
7.8%
BB%
9.3%
23.0%
K%
18.0%
70.6%
LOB%
67.7%
.252
Batting Avg
.248
.456
SLG
.399
.795
OPS
.707
.339
OBP
.307
LAD
Team Records
COL
28-19
Home
20-27
28-21
Road
13-36
31-30
vRHP
23-45
25-10
vLHP
10-18
25-20
vs>.500
21-32
31-20
vs<.500
12-31
3-7
Last10
4-6
10-10
Last20
7-13
15-15
Last30
10-20
W. Buehler
A. Gomber
65.0
Innings
125.0
12
GS
24
6-3
W-L
9-9
4.02
ERA
5.33
8.03
K/9
5.83
2.35
BB/9
2.59
1.11
HR/9
1.58
74.9%
LOB%
70.0%
12.7%
HR/FB%
14.5%
3.80
FIP
5.20
3.64
xFIP
4.90
.263
AVG
.291
21.2%
K%
15.0%
6.2%
BB%
6.7%
3.82
SIERA
5.08

W. Buehler

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/1 DET
Rodriguez N/A
W6-3 N/A
5
6
0
0
5
1
57-92
4/25 ARI
Kelly N/A
W4-0 N/A
9
3
0
0
10
0
75-108
4/19 ATL
Fried N/A
L1-3 N/A
5
8
3
3
2
1
58-79
4/14 CIN
Cessa N/A
W9-3 N/A
5.2
5
2
2
4
3
60-98
4/8 COL
Freeland N/A
W5-3 N/A
5
4
2
2
5
2
53-78

A. Gomber

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/4 WSH
Corbin N/A
W5-2 N/A
6.2
7
2
2
6
1
62-94
4/28 PHI
Wheeler N/A
L1-7 N/A
6
3
3
2
6
1
57-88
4/23 DET
Brieske N/A
W3-2 N/A
6
4
0
0
8
0
63-88
4/17 CHC
Smyly N/A
L4-6 N/A
4.1
8
5
4
2
4
48-81
4/11 TEX
Hearn N/A
W6-4 N/A
4.2
4
3
3
4
2
47-78

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
LAD COL
LAD COL
Consensus
-191
+161
-193
+162
-192
+160
-192
+160
-194
+162
-196
+164
-200
+170
-195
+163
-190
+158
-195
+162
-185
+150
-190
+155
Open
Current
Book
LAD COL
LAD COL
Consensus
-1.5 (-129)
+1.5 (+110)
-1.5 (-129)
+1.5 (+107)
-1.5 (-130)
+1.5 (+105)
-1.5 (-130)
+1.5 (+110)
-1.5 (-128)
+1.5 (+110)
-1.5 (-128)
+1.5 (+106)
-1.5 (-125)
+1.5 (+110)
-1.5 (-125)
+1.5 (+104)
-1.5 (-135)
+1.5 (+105)
-1.5 (-135)
+1.5 (+115)
-1.5 (-125)
+1.5 (+100)
-1.5 (-125)
+1.5 (+105)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
11.5 (-115)
11.5 (-105)
11.0 (-106)
11.0 (-115)
12.0 (-105)
12.0 (-115)
11.0 (+100)
11.0 (-120)
11.5 (-110)
11.5 (-110)
11.0 (-104)
11.0 (-118)
12.0 (-107)
12.0 (-114)
11.0 (-112)
11.0 (-109)
12.0 (-105)
12.0 (-115)
11.0 (-105)
11.0 (-115)
12.0 (-105)
12.0 (-115)
11.0 (+100)
11.0 (-120)