Los Angeles Dodgers at Toronto Blue Jays Best Bet – 4/28/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers

Apr 28, 2024

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

  • Date: April 28, 2024
  • Venue: Rogers Centre
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Michael Grove - Dodgers
    • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays
  • Run Line: Dodgers 1.5 -205, Blue Jays -1.5 175
  • Money Line: Dodgers -105, Blue Jays -115
  • Total (Over/Under): 8

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

  • Los Angeles Dodgers - 49%
  • Toronto Blue Jays - 51%

Projected Win %:

  • Los Angeles Dodgers - 50.36%
  • Toronto Blue Jays - 49.64%

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue Jays Game Preview & Prediction

On April 28, 2024, the Toronto Blue Jays will face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays will be playing as the home team, while the Dodgers will be the away team. This game is part of an Interleague matchup, adding an extra layer of excitement for fans.

The Blue Jays are currently having a below-average season with a record of 13-15. On the other hand, the Dodgers are having a great season with a record of 18-11. The Blue Jays will be looking to turn their season around, while the Dodgers aim to maintain their strong performance.

The projected starting pitcher for the Blue Jays is Kevin Gausman, a right-handed pitcher who is ranked as the #21 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Gausman has started five games this year but has yet to secure a win, with an ERA of 5.57. However, his peripheral indicators suggest that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

The Dodgers will counter with Michael Grove, another right-handed pitcher. Grove has struggled this season, with an ERA of 6.00. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, he is one of the worst pitchers in MLB. However, his xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and could improve in future outings.

In their last game, the Blue Jays faced the Dodgers and lost by a score of 4-2. The Blue Jays were considered underdogs in this matchup, with a closing Moneyline price of +125 and an implied win probability of 43%. The Dodgers, as favorites, had a closing Moneyline price of -145 and an implied win probability of 57%.

Offensively, the Blue Jays rank 17th in MLB this season, while the Dodgers boast the 2nd best offense in the league. Daulton Varsho has been the Blue Jays' best hitter this season, while Mookie Betts has been leading the charge for the Dodgers.

With the Blue Jays' bullpen ranked 7th best in MLB according to our Power Rankings, they have a solid support system. The Dodgers, however, have an even stronger bullpen, ranked 3rd best in the league.

Based on the current odds, the Blue Jays have an average implied team total of 4.05 runs, while the Dodgers have an average implied team total of 3.95 runs. THE BAT X projects a close game, with both teams having a 50% win probability.

As the game unfolds, keep an eye on the pitching matchup between Gausman and Grove. Gausman's control issues may neutralize the Dodgers' patient offense, giving the Blue Jays an advantage. However, the Dodgers' strong overall performance this season cannot be overlooked.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Michael Grove's 94.1-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season is in the 76th percentile among all SPs.

  • Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Shohei Ohtani has been hot recently, notching 3 homers in the past week's worth of games.

  • Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

Will Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Compared to league average, Kevin Gausman has been granted more leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, recording an additional 7.8 adjusted pitches each start.

  • Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the 5th-best hitter in MLB when estimating his batting average talent.

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 4th-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today's games is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 19.9% underlying K%.

  • THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 111 games (+11.50 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 73 of their last 129 games (+17.90 Units / 11% ROI)

Dodgers vs Blue Jays Prediction: Dodgers 4.67 - Blue Jays 4.39

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-107
42% LAD
-113
58% TOR

Total Pick Consensus

8.5/-118
15% UN
8.5/-102
85% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/+160
70% LAD
+1.5/-192
30% TOR

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
LAD
Team Stats
TOR
4.26
ERA
3.68
.239
Batting Avg Against
.238
1.24
WHIP
1.24
.288
BABIP
.294
7.8%
BB%
8.0%
23.0%
K%
25.1%
70.6%
LOB%
76.4%
.252
Batting Avg
.260
.456
SLG
.415
.795
OPS
.746
.339
OBP
.331
LAD
Team Records
TOR
22-13
Home
16-15
20-14
Road
17-20
24-20
vRHP
28-27
18-7
vLHP
5-8
10-7
vs>.500
16-20
32-20
vs<.500
17-15
6-4
Last10
5-5
10-10
Last20
11-9
16-14
Last30
16-14
M. Grove
K. Gausman
64.0
Innings
139.0
12
GS
23
2-3
W-L
9-6
6.61
ERA
3.04
9.42
K/9
11.85
2.53
BB/9
2.20
1.69
HR/9
0.91
65.0%
LOB%
76.9%
16.9%
HR/FB%
11.0%
4.60
FIP
2.72
3.98
xFIP
2.91
.311
AVG
.235
23.5%
K%
32.5%
6.3%
BB%
6.0%
3.97
SIERA
3.05

M. Grove

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

K. Gausman

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/1 HOU
Valdez N/A
W3-2 N/A
7
6
2
2
10
0
71-98
4/26 BOS
Pivetta N/A
W6-5 N/A
6
4
1
0
9
0
62-88
4/21 BOS
Houck N/A
W3-2 N/A
8
7
1
1
8
0
70-88
4/14 NYY
Severino N/A
L0-3 N/A
5.2
6
2
2
9
0
67-83
4/9 TEX
Dunning N/A
W4-3 N/A
5
8
3
3
5
0
57-80

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
LAD TOR
LAD TOR
Consensus
+105
-125
-107
-113
+110
-130
-108
-112
-102
-116
-104
-112
+117
-137
-106
-110
+110
-130
-110
-110
+105
-125
-105
-115
+105
-125
+100
-120
Open
Current
Book
LAD TOR
LAD TOR
Consensus
+1.5 (155)
-1.5 (+157)
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-196)
+1.5 (160)
-1.5 (+160)
-1.5 (+160)
+1.5 (-192)
-1.5 (+164)
+1.5 (-200)
-1.5 (+146)
+1.5 (-178)
+1.5 (155)
-1.5 (+150)
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-195)
+1.5 (-210)
-1.5 (+158)
+1.5 (-210)
-1.5 (+175)
+1.5 (160)
-1.5 (+160)
-1.5 (+160)
+1.5 (-190)
+1.5 (165)
-1.5 (+155)
-1.5 (+165)
+1.5 (-200)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.0 (-118)
8.0 (-103)
8.5 (-101)
8.5 (-122)
8.0 (-118)
8.0 (-102)
8.0 (-120)
8.0 (+100)
8.5 (+100)
8.5 (-122)
8.5 (+100)
8.5 (-122)
8.5 (-103)
8.5 (-118)
8.0 (-120)
8.0 (+100)
8.5 (+100)
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (+100)
8.5 (-120)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.5 (+100)
8.5 (-120)