Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners Pick – 4/30/2025

Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

The Seattle Mariners and the Los Angeles Angels are set to continue their series on April 30, 2025, with both teams aiming to solidify their respective standings in the American League West. The Mariners come into this matchup with a record of 17-12, showcasing a solid season thus far, while the Angels sit at 12-16, struggling to find their stride. In their last meeting, the Mariners emerged victorious, further cementing this as a crucial series for both teams.

Seattle's Emerson Hancock is slated to start, and despite ranking as the 241st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, he has shown signs of potential with a 3.49 xFIP, suggesting he might improve after some bad luck. However, his ERA of 7.71 this season is alarming, as he averages 2.4 earned runs allowed while projecting to strike out 4.8 batters—below average for a starting pitcher. Facing him will be Tyler Anderson of the Angels, who has recorded an impressive 2.60 ERA, though his 5.14 xFIP raises some eyebrows regarding his sustainability.

In terms of offensive production, the Mariners rank 4th in MLB, supported by a potent lineup that leads in walks and home runs. Their ability to capitalize on Anderson’s control issues—he has a 10.7 BB%—could turn the tide in their favor. On the flip side, the Angels rank 27th offensively, with a particularly concerning 29th in team batting average, making it difficult for them to provide consistent run support.

With an average Game Total of 8.5 runs and Seattle's favorable moneyline of -150, this matchup shapes up to be a key moment for the Mariners as they look to maintain their momentum against a faltering Angels squad.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Tyler Anderson's fastball velocity has decreased 1.4 mph this season (88.1 mph) below where it was last year (89.5 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Extreme flyball bats like Mike Trout tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Emerson Hancock.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen projects as the 6th-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Emerson Hancock has averaged 14.5 outs per GS since the start of last season, placing in the 14th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Donovan Solano has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (100% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.4% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.20 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.35 Units / 35% ROI)
• Taylor Ward has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 games (+7.10 Units / 94% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.13, Seattle Mariners 4.1

• Date: April 30, 2025
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Anderson - Angels
  • Emerson Hancock - Mariners

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