Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction – 4/29/2025

Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

On April 29, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will face off against the Tampa Bay Rays at George M. Steinbrenner Field in what marks the first game of their series. Both teams have had average starts to the season, with the Rays sitting at 14-14 and the Royals slightly trailing at 14-15. The matchup is intriguing, especially with the Rays projected to start Taj Bradley, who is ranked as the 69th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings.

Bradley has displayed mixed results this season, holding a 2-1 record with a 5.08 ERA, which suggests he has been somewhat unlucky given his lower xFIP of 4.14. This could bode well for him as he faces a Royals lineup that ranks dead last in MLB in offensive production, including home runs. Their ability to capitalize on fly balls is limited, which may give Bradley the upper hand as he tends to induce fly balls at a 38% rate.

On the other side, Michael Lorenzen takes the mound for Kansas City. While he has a respectable 3.90 ERA, he is considered one of the weaker pitchers in the league according to Power Rankings. His projections suggest he will struggle, allowing nearly 3 earned runs and over 5 hits per game, which is concerning against a Rays offense that ranks 14th overall but is 7th in batting average.

Given the current betting odds, the Rays are favored with a moneyline of -150, indicating a high implied team total of 4.62 runs. In contrast, the Royals have struggled offensively, making this matchup lean heavily in favor of Tampa Bay. With both teams looking to find their rhythm, the Rays appear well-positioned to take advantage in this contest.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Checking in at the 16th percentile, Michael Lorenzen has recorded a 17.9% K% since the start of last season.

• One of the best indicators of future strikeouts is past strikeouts.

Kyle Isbel's average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 88.1-mph figure last year has decreased to 84.5-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Michael Massey pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.3% — 95th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Given that flyball batters struggle against flyball pitchers, Taj Bradley (35.8% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 3 FB hitters in the opposing club's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Kameron Misner has had positive variance on his side this year. His .386 figure has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .291.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Placing 3rd-lowest in MLB this year, Tampa Bay Rays batters as a unit have compiled a 9.5° launch angle (a reliable standard to study the ability to lift the ball for power).

• A low launch angle generally means the hitter struggles to lift the ball into the air, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 23 games (+2.90 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 away games (+6.70 Units / 42% ROI)
• Jonathan India has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.00 Units / 40% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.29, Tampa Bay Rays 4.55

• Date: April 29, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Lorenzen - Royals
  • Taj Bradley - Rays

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.