Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees Prediction – 4/16/2025

Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees host the Kansas City Royals on April 16, 2025, in the third game of what has been a competitive series. The Yankees are enjoying a solid season with a 10-7 record, while the Royals are struggling at 8-10. In their most recent matchup on April 15, the Yankees secured a 4-2 victory, marking a continuation of their strong play. Clarke Schmidt is projected to take the mound for New York, bringing with him a ranking of 52nd among starting pitchers, which indicates he has been effective this season.

While Schmidt's projections suggest he may pitch only 4.7 innings and allow 1.9 earned runs, he does struggle with walks, averaging 1.3 per game. This could be crucial against a Royals offense that ranks 28th in MLB, which has not shown the ability to capitalize consistently. On the other hand, Kansas City will counter with Kris Bubic, who has a solid 2-1 record and a stellar ERA of 0.96. However, projections hint at potential regression, as his xFIP suggests he has benefited from good luck thus far.

The Yankees' offense, ranked 1st in MLB, has been potent, boasting an impressive home run total of 32. In stark contrast, the Royals' offense ranks 28th and has been inconsistent at best. Given these dynamics, sportsbooks have made the Yankees a strong favorite with a moneyline of -165, reflecting their considerable advantage heading into this matchup.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Kris Bubic has been lucky in regards to his strikeouts since the start of last season, posting an 11.02 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 9.35 — a 1.67 K/9 deviation.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Michael Massey has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 7.2% rate last year has fallen off to 0% this year.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Kansas City Royals bullpen projects as the 5th-worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Out of all starters, Clarke Schmidt's fastball spin rate of 2672 rpm grades out in the 100th percentile since the start of last season.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Ben Rice has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 96.1-mph average to last year's 90-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Anthony Volpe hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 93rd percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.25 Units / 55% ROI)
• Michael Massey has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 46% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.02, New York Yankees 4.48

• Date: April 16, 2025
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kris Bubic - Royals
  • Clarke Schmidt - Yankees

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