Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros Prediction – 5/13/2025

On May 13, 2025, the Houston Astros will host the Kansas City Royals at Minute Maid Park for the second game of their series. The Astros currently sit at .500 with a 20-20 record, while the Royals have been performing well with a 25-18 record, marking them as one of the stronger teams this season. In their last outing, the Astros fell to the Royals, which adds a layer of pressure as they look to even the series.

The matchup features two left-handed pitchers: Framber Valdez for the Astros and Kris Bubic for the Royals. Valdez, ranked as the 20th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, has had an up-and-down season, sporting a 2-4 record and a 3.94 ERA. His projections for this game indicate he may pitch around 6.1 innings while allowing approximately 2.4 earned runs. However, his tendency to allow 5.6 hits and 1.9 walks per game raises concerns.

On the other side, Bubic, ranked 53rd, has been solid with a 4-2 record and a standout 1.69 ERA. His projections suggest he will pitch about 5.4 innings with 2.5 earned runs allowed. Despite his strong numbers, his 3.52 xFIP indicates he might be due for some regression, which could play a critical role in this matchup.

Offensively, the Astros rank 14th in MLB, while the Royals sit at 26th, struggling particularly with power, having hit the fewest home runs in the league. This could benefit Valdez, a high-groundball pitcher, as the Royals may struggle to capitalize on their limited power against him.

With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs, the Astros are currently favored with a moneyline of -140. Given the projections and the Astros' need to bounce back, this game presents an intriguing opportunity for bettors.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Kris Bubic has been lucky this year, putting up a 1.69 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.01 — a 2.32 deviation.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Vinnie Pasquantino is penciled in 6th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 93% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Kansas City Royals bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Framber Valdez's 93.2-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 1-mph decrease from last season's 94.2-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Isaac Paredes's average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 85.7-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 81.2-mph in the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (45.6% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 21 of their last 34 games (+9.92 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 36 games (+16.10 Units / 39% ROI)
• Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 away games (+5.70 Units / 114% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.06, Houston Astros 4.24

• Date: May 13, 2025
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kris Bubic - Royals
  • Framber Valdez - Astros

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.