Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles Pick – 5/3/2025

Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to face the Kansas City Royals on May 3, 2025, both teams find themselves in challenging positions in the standings. The Orioles sit at 13-18, struggling this season, while the Royals hold a slightly better record at 17-16, marking them as having an above-average season. In their last matchup, the Orioles grabbed a 3-run win at Camden Yards.

On the mound, the Orioles will send out Tomoyuki Sugano, who boasts a solid 3.00 ERA this year. However, his xFIP of 4.46 suggests he has benefitted from some good fortune, and he projects to allow an alarming 3.3 earned runs over 5.3 innings. Sugano's low strikeout rate (12.6 K%) could be a concern against a Royals lineup that ranks 3rd in the league for the fewest strikeouts. Conversely, Kris Bubic, projected to start for Kansas City, has been performing well with a 2.25 ERA and a more favorable xFIP of 3.65. Bubic's ability to keep hitters off balance could exploit the Orioles' lackluster offense, which ranks 21st in MLB.

While the Orioles have shown some power, ranking 10th in home runs, their overall offensive inconsistency—especially with a .227 batting average (27th in MLB)—might hinder their chances against Bubic. The projections indicate a close contest, reflected in the moneyline set at -110 for both teams.

With the stakes high for the Orioles to turn their season around, they will need a strong performance from Sugano and a more potent offensive display to secure a win against the Royals.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Considering the 1.87 discrepancy between Kris Bubic's 2.25 ERA and his 4.12 estimated true talent ERA (per the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball this year and figures to see worse results going forward.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Extreme flyball batters like Maikel Garcia tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Tomoyuki Sugano.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Hunter Renfroe pulls many of his flyballs (39.5% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 3rd-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

In his previous GS, Tomoyuki Sugano wasn't on when it came to striking hitters out and only managed to post 1 Ks.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Over the last 7 days, Adley Rutschman's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.9% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Compared to their .330 overall projected rate, the .316 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Baltimore Orioles projected offense in this game suggests this version of the lineup quite a bit weaker than usual.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games (+8.80 Units / 24% ROI)
• Cedric Mullins has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.75 Units / 46% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Kansas City Royals 5.29, Baltimore Orioles 4.71

• Date: May 3, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kris Bubic - Royals
  • Tomoyuki Sugano - Orioles

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