Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Pick – 4/7/2025

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

The Seattle Mariners will host the Houston Astros on April 7, 2025, in what marks the first game of their series. Both teams have struggled out of the gate, with the Mariners sitting at 3-7 and the Astros slightly ahead at 4-5. The Mariners' season has gotten off to a particularly rocky start, and they will be eager to turn things around at T-Mobile Park.

In their last game, the Mariners suffered a setback, further emphasizing their need for improvement. Houston's pitching will be led by Hayden Wesneski, projected to struggle with control, indicated by a high walk rate of 14.3%. This could work in favor of the Mariners, who are known for their patience at the plate, ranking 2nd in MLB for walks drawn this season. Meanwhile, Logan Gilbert will take the mound for Seattle, bringing a solid 3.00 ERA into this matchup. With his advanced metrics suggesting he has been unlucky, he could be poised for a breakout performance against a struggling Astros lineup.

With Seattle currently favored at -165, the betting odds suggest confidence in their ability to edge out Houston, despite both teams' struggles this season. As the Mariners look to move past their early-season woes, this matchup will be crucial for them to gain momentum.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Hayden Wesneski has experienced some positive variance in regards to his ERA since the start of last season; his 3.97 rate is deflated compared to his 4.63 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Yordan Alvarez stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

It may be wise to expect weaker performance for the Houston Astros offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 6th-luckiest offense in the majors since the start of last season.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Logan Gilbert's 2044.1-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season grades out in the 5th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Typically, batters like Jorge Polanco who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Hayden Wesneski.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Seattle Mariners bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 58 games (+14.30 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 68 away games (+16.50 Units / 22% ROI)
• Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+12.65 Units / 62% ROI)

• Date: April 7, 2025
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hayden Wesneski - Astros
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.