Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins Prediction For 7/6/2024

Houston Astros

Houston Astros

Jul 6, 2024

Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins Details

  • Date: July 6, 2024
  • Venue: Target Field
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Hunter Brown - Astros
    • Joe Ryan - Twins

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Astros 110, Twins -130
Runline: Astros 1.5 -195, Twins -1.5 165
Over/Under Total: 8 -110

Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Houston Astros - 46% Houston Astros - 46.3%
Minnesota Twins - 54% Minnesota Twins - 53.7%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

As the Minnesota Twins and Houston Astros gear up for the second game of their series on July 6, 2024, fans and bettors alike have plenty to consider. The Twins, sitting at 49-39, are having a solid season and currently hold a better record than the Astros, who are 46-42 and above average. This American League clash at Target Field promises to be a tightly contested matchup.

On the mound, the Twins will feature Joe Ryan, the #20 best starting pitcher according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Ryan's impressive 3.21 ERA this season attests to his great form, though his 5-5 Win/Loss record doesn't fully reflect his effectiveness. He’s projected to pitch 5.8 innings and strike out 6.5 batters. The Twins' bullpen, ranked 3rd best in MLB by advanced-stat Power Rankings, should provide solid support if Ryan can hand them a lead.

The Astros counter with Hunter Brown, the #39 best starting pitcher, who has a 6-5 record and a 4.07 ERA. However, his 3.33 xERA suggests he's been a bit unlucky and could perform better going forward. Brown is projected to pitch 5.5 innings and strike out 5.8 batters. The Astros' bullpen, ranked 12th, will need to be sharp to keep the game within reach.

Offensively, both teams bring firepower. The Twins boast the 6th best offense and rank 9th in team batting average and 6th in home runs. However, they struggle with speed, ranking 23rd in stolen bases. Jose Miranda has been hot over the last week, hitting .583 with a 1.475 OPS. The Astros, with the 5th best offense, lead MLB in team batting average and are 7th in home runs. Yordan Alvarez has been their standout hitter recently, with a .375 average and three home runs in the last week.

In terms of betting, the Twins are slight favorites with a moneyline of -120, implying a 52% win probability. The Astros are at +100, with a 48% implied win probability. THE BAT X projects the Twins to score 4.1 runs and the Astros 3.9 runs, indicating a close game with an average Game Total of 8.0 runs.

Given the Twins' strong bullpen, the solid form of Joe Ryan, and the slight edge in implied win probability, Minnesota looks poised to edge out Houston in what should be a thrilling contest.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Hunter Brown's slider rate has fallen by 19.4% from last season to this one (25.1% to 5.7%) .

  • Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Trey Cabbage has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.5-mph to 98.1-mph over the last 7 days.

  • Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Houston Astros have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Trey Cabbage, Joey Loperfido, Jon Singleton).

  • Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Joe Ryan's fastball velocity has spiked 1.8 mph this season (93.4 mph) over where it was last year (91.6 mph).

  • Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Extreme flyball hitters like Byron Buxton tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Brown.

  • This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Minnesota Twins bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 33 games (+11.35 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 30 of their last 48 games (+14.05 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Byron Buxton has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.15 Units / 61% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 4.16 vs Minnesota Twins 4.22

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+116
32% HOU
-135
68% MIN

Total Pick Consensus

7.5/-110
3% UN
7.5/-110
97% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-192
40% HOU
-1.5/+160
60% MIN

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
HOU
Team Stats
MIN
3.79
ERA
3.89
.237
Batting Avg Against
.235
1.26
WHIP
1.20
.289
BABIP
.293
8.7%
BB%
7.3%
24.0%
K%
25.8%
75.3%
LOB%
74.0%
.251
Batting Avg
.237
.417
SLG
.416
.740
OPS
.732
.324
OBP
.316
HOU
Team Records
MIN
28-21
Home
27-20
24-26
Road
27-24
39-32
vRHP
38-34
13-15
vLHP
16-10
18-26
vs>.500
22-31
34-21
vs<.500
32-13
6-4
Last10
5-5
13-7
Last20
11-9
21-9
Last30
18-12
H. Brown
J. Ryan
125.1
Innings
126.0
22
GS
22
9-8
W-L
9-8
4.16
ERA
4.43
9.91
K/9
10.86
2.80
BB/9
1.79
1.22
HR/9
1.79
73.5%
LOB%
74.3%
19.5%
HR/FB%
14.5%
3.93
FIP
4.15
3.30
xFIP
3.81
.257
AVG
.239
26.5%
K%
29.1%
7.5%
BB%
4.8%
3.58
SIERA
3.44

H. Brown

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

J. Ryan

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/3 BAL
Zimmermann N/A
W7-2 N/A
4.2
6
2
2
3
1
57-81
4/27 DET
Pineda N/A
W5-0 N/A
7
1
0
0
9
1
58-90
4/21 KC
Greinke N/A
W1-0 N/A
6
2
0
0
5
1
57-85
4/15 BOS
Pivetta N/A
W8-4 N/A
6
5
1
1
7
0
60-82
4/8 SEA
Ray N/A
L1-2 N/A
4
2
2
2
4
4
42-70

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
HOU MIN
HOU MIN
Consensus
-102
-115
+116
-135
-102
-118
+114
-135
-102
-116
+118
-138
-103
-115
+112
-132
+100
-120
+115
-135
+100
-120
+120
-145
Open
Current
Book
HOU MIN
HOU MIN
Consensus
+1.5 (-191)
-1.5 (+175)
+1.5 (-191)
-1.5 (+158)
-1.5 (+164)
+1.5 (-198)
+1.5 (-185)
-1.5 (+154)
-1.5 (+164)
+1.5 (-200)
+1.5 (-192)
-1.5 (+158)
-1.5 (+163)
+1.5 (-215)
+1.5 (-205)
-1.5 (+163)
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+170)
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+158)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+170)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+145)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
7.5 (-120)
7.5 (-101)
7.5 (-111)
7.5 (-110)
8.0 (+100)
8.0 (-120)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-120)
7.5 (-102)
7.5 (-112)
7.5 (-108)
7.5 (-118)
7.5 (-103)
7.5 (-113)
7.5 (-107)
8.0 (+100)
8.0 (-120)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
8.0 (+100)
8.0 (-120)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)