Detroit Tigers VS Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Pick & Preview – 4/8/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Overview

• Date: April 8, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Reese Olson - Tigers
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates
• Run Line: Tigers 1.5 -190, Pirates -1.5 165
• Money Line: Tigers 110, Pirates -130
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Detroit Tigers - 46%
• Pittsburgh Pirates - 54%

Projected Win %:

• Detroit Tigers - 47.23%
• Pittsburgh Pirates - 52.77%

Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Game Preview & Prediction

In an exciting Interleague matchup, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Detroit Tigers at PNC Park on April 8, 2024. The Pirates, with a strong record of 8-2 this season, are having a great start to the year. Meanwhile, the Tigers are also enjoying success with a 6-3 record. It promises to be an intriguing game between two teams performing well in the early stages of the season.

Taking the mound for the Pirates is right-handed pitcher Mitch Keller. Keller, who has started two games this season, holds a win/loss record of 0-1 with an ERA of 6.55. While his ERA may not be impressive, his 4.73 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and could perform better going forward. Keller is projected to pitch an average of 5.7 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs and striking out 5.8 batters. However, his projection also indicates that he may struggle with allowing 5.6 hits and 1.7 walks, which could pose a challenge for the Pirates.

Opposing Keller on the mound will be right-handed pitcher Reese Olson for the Tigers. Olson, who has started one game this season, holds a win/loss record of 0-0 with an impressive ERA of 0.00. However, his 5.04 xFIP suggests that he has been somewhat lucky and may not perform as well going forward. Olson is projected to pitch an average of 5.2 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs and striking out 5.1 batters. But his projection also indicates that he may struggle with allowing 4.8 hits and 1.9 walks, which could be exploited by the Pirates' offense.

Speaking of offense, the Pirates rank as the 6th best team in MLB this season, showcasing their strong batting prowess. However, their team batting average ranks 26th in the league, indicating room for improvement in that aspect. On the other hand, the Tigers' offense ranks 25th in MLB, with their team batting average ranking 27th. Both teams have work to do in terms of their hitting performance.

When it comes to the bullpen, the Pirates have an impressive ranking, sitting at 5th best in MLB, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. The Tigers' bullpen, while not as strong, holds an average ranking of 12th. These rankings suggest that the Pirates may have an advantage when it comes to the late innings of the game.

In terms of betting odds, the Pirates are favored with a moneyline set at -130, indicating an implied win probability of 54%. The Tigers, with a moneyline set at +110, have an implied win probability of 46%. The odds suggest that this will be a closely contested game, with the Pirates having a higher implied team total of 4.45 runs compared to the Tigers' 4.05 runs.

As we look at the overall picture, the Pirates have been performing well this season, boasting a strong record and a solid offense. However, the Tigers have also been impressive, with a winning record and a pitcher in Olson who has yet to allow an earned run. While the Pirates may have the edge in terms of offensive ranking and bullpen strength, the Tigers' pitching staff, led by Olson, could pose a challenge for the Pirates' hitters.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

The Detroit Tigers infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest out of every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Jake Rogers's batting average ability is projected to be in the 6th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Mitch Keller has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 6.6 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Oneil Cruz has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (50% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Henry Davis pulls many of his flyballs (36.5% — 94th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 9th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 67 of their last 117 games (+14.20 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 50 away games (+17.75 Units / 31% ROI)
• Jared Triolo has hit the Total Bases Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.30 Units / 39% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Detroit Tigers 4.23 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.23

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