Detroit Tigers vs Milwaukee Brewers Pick – 4/15/2025

Detroit Tigers vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

On April 15, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the Detroit Tigers at American Family Field in what is shaping up to be a compelling interleague matchup. Both teams are looking to find their footing, with the Brewers currently at 8-9 and the Tigers at 10-6. The Tigers, enjoying a strong start to the season, will look to build on their recent success, while the Brewers are trying to turn things around after a shaky start.

In their last game, the Brewers fell to the Tigers, who showcased their offensive prowess, ranking 6th in MLB this season. Meanwhile, the Brewers' offense sits at 17th, indicating they’ve struggled to score consistently. Despite their overall offensive ranking, the Brewers have a solid power display, ranking 14th in home runs and 9th in stolen bases.

On the mound, the Brewers will send Quinn Priester to the hill, who has had an excellent ERA of 1.80 this season, albeit with some underlying metrics suggesting he may be due for regression. Priester projects to pitch an average of 5.3 innings today, allowing 2.4 earned runs, but he faces a Tigers lineup that has the 3rd most strikeouts in MLB. This could play to his advantage, given Priester's low K-rate of 19.1%.

Opposing him is Jack Flaherty, who has been stellar with a 1.62 ERA and a solid 3.21 xFIP. Flaherty projects to pitch 5.5 innings and is expected to strike out 6.3 batters, further bolstering a Tigers offense that has already shown its strength.

Betting markets reflect a close contest, with the Brewers at +100 and the Tigers at -120. The Game Total is set at a low 7.5 runs, indicating expectations for a tightly contested game. As these teams clash, the Brewers will aim to harness their power and leverage their bullpen, which ranks 9th in MLB, to turn the tide in their favor.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Jack Flaherty's 92-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.3-mph decrease from last year's 93.3-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Colt Keith's average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 87.8-mph average last season has fallen off to 81-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Trey Sweeney hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Compared to the average starter, Quinn Priester has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an -14.0 fewer adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Hitters such as Christian Yelich with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Jack Flaherty who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Milwaukee Brewers have done a strong job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their highest exit velocity balls. Their 16.2° angle is among the highest in the game since the start of last season (#2 overall).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 55 games (+6.70 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 87 games (+19.40 Units / 18% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.22, Milwaukee Brewers 4.23

• Date: April 15, 2025
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Flaherty - Tigers
  • Quinn Priester - Brewers

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