Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians Prediction For 7/23/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Details

• Date: July 23, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joey Wentz - Tigers
  • Xzavion Curry - Guardians

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians square off at Progressive Field on July 23, 2024. This American League Central showdown comes with significant implications as the Guardians look to solidify their spot at the top of the division. Cleveland, sporting a strong 59-40 record, is having a stellar season, while Detroit's 50-51 record reflects a more average performance.

Yesterday, the Tigers took down the Guardians with an impressive 8-2 victory. The Guardians, who were the underdogs with a closing Moneyline of +120, will look to bounce back. They were outplayed by a favored Tigers squad that had a closing Moneyline of -140.

Xzavion Curry, Cleveland's right-handed starter, will face off against Detroit’s lefty Joey Wentz. Curry has struggled this season, holding a 5.19 ERA and a 0-2 record in his three starts. His last outing was particularly rough, allowing 6 earned runs over 3 innings. Advanced-stat Power Rankings place him at #319 out of approximately 350 pitchers, which indicates he's one of the weakest starters in the league.

Wentz, with a 5.22 ERA and a 0-1 record, also finds himself among the poorer-performing pitchers, despite his 4.18 xFIP suggesting he's been somewhat unlucky. He's made 28 bullpen appearances and is set for his fourth start. Wentz allowed 7 earned runs in a brief 2-inning stint during his last start, underscoring his struggles.

Offensively, Cleveland holds an edge. The Guardians' lineup ranks 12th in MLB, featuring solid performers like Jose Ramirez, who has a .273 batting average and 23 home runs this season. Meanwhile, the Tigers' offense ranks 25th, with Riley Greene being their standout hitter. Greene boasts a .268 batting average and 17 home runs.

Bullpen performance could also be a deciding factor. Cleveland's relievers rank as the 1st best in MLB, contrasting with the Tigers' solid 8th ranking. This superior Guardians bullpen may play a pivotal role if Curry struggles early.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Cleveland is favored to win with a projected 58% win probability. This makes the Guardians' current Moneyline of -140 an interesting proposition for bettors. They’re projected to score 4.75 runs, compared to Detroit's 4.19, suggesting a potential edge in run production.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Joey Wentz is projected to throw 77 pitches in today's matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 6th-least of all pitchers today.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

The Cleveland Guardians have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Zach McKinstry can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Detroit Tigers bullpen projects as the 8th-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Considering the 1.11 gap between Xzavion Curry's 4.24 ERA and his 5.35 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the luckiest pitchers in Major League Baseball since the start of last season and figures to perform worse in future games.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Despite posting a .390 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Steven Kwan has been lucky given the .080 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .310.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (41.5% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 57 of their last 99 games (+10.30 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 82 games (+11.40 Units / 13% ROI)
• Wenceel Perez has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+6.90 Units / 33% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.34 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.93

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