Detroit Tigers at Atlanta Braves Pick & Prediction – 6/17/2024

Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers

Jun 17, 2024

Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta Braves Details

  • Date: June 17, 2024
  • Venue: Truist Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Reese Olson - Tigers
    • Max Fried - Braves

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Tigers 170, Braves -200
Runline: Tigers 1.5 -110, Braves -1.5 -110
Over/Under Total: 8 -110

Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Detroit Tigers - 36% Detroit Tigers - 34.33%
Atlanta Braves - 64% Atlanta Braves - 65.67%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

As the Atlanta Braves gear up to host the Detroit Tigers on June 17, 2024, at Truist Park, both teams find themselves in different standings positions. The Braves, with a solid 38-31 record, are having a good season and looking to strengthen their playoff contention. On the other hand, the Tigers are struggling with a 34-37 record, indicating a below-average season.

The Braves have a significant advantage on the mound with Max Fried, who is ranked as the 3rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Fried's elite status is backed by his impressive 3.20 ERA and a 6-3 win/loss record over 13 starts. He is projected to pitch 6.0 innings, allow 2.0 earned runs, and strike out 6.1 batters on average today. Despite his high ranking, Fried's projections indicate some vulnerability with an expected 5.4 hits and 1.3 walks allowed.

The Tigers will counter with Reese Olson, ranked 76th among starting pitchers. Olson has had a tough season with a 1-8 record, but his 3.68 ERA shows he has been better than his win/loss record suggests. Olson is projected to pitch 5.2 innings, allow 2.7 earned runs, and strike out 5.2 batters. However, his projections also indicate potential struggles, with 5.3 hits and 1.6 walks allowed on average.

Offensively, the Braves have an edge with their 13th ranked offense, featuring Matt Olson, who has been on fire over the last week with a .478 batting average, 1.452 OPS, and 2 home runs. In contrast, the Tigers' offense ranks 24th, but Riley Greene has been a bright spot, recording 3 home runs and 11 RBIs over the last week.

The Braves' bullpen, ranked 8th, should provide solid support, while the Tigers' bullpen, ranked 15th, is average. With Atlanta being a big betting favorite at -200 and an implied win probability of 64%, they are expected to come out on top, particularly given their superior pitching and offensive capabilities.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Wenceel Perez is penciled in 7th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

  • The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Projected catcher Jake Rogers grades out as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

  • Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Max Fried has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 7.7 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starter.

  • Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves' bullpen projects as the 8th-best out of all major league teams.

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 65 games (+14.80 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 49 games (+12.15 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Under in 30 of his last 44 games (+12.80 Units / 23% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 3.59 vs Atlanta Braves 4.76

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+178
6% DET
-211
94% ATL

Total Pick Consensus

8.0/-115
3% UN
8.0/-105
97% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-115
4% DET
-1.5/-105
96% ATL

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
DET
Team Stats
ATL
4.46
ERA
3.86
.244
Batting Avg Against
.240
1.27
WHIP
1.28
.289
BABIP
.300
7.6%
BB%
8.7%
22.2%
K%
24.5%
68.5%
LOB%
74.1%
.234
Batting Avg
.275
.374
SLG
.502
.673
OPS
.847
.299
OBP
.345
DET
Team Records
ATL
24-24
Home
30-20
26-27
Road
24-25
38-42
vRHP
35-33
12-9
vLHP
19-12
30-35
vs>.500
34-29
20-16
vs<.500
20-16
7-3
Last10
4-6
13-7
Last20
10-10
16-14
Last30
16-14
R. Olson
M. Fried
60.2
Innings
42.0
10
GS
8
2-5
W-L
4-1
4.45
ERA
2.57
8.60
K/9
8.36
2.37
BB/9
1.71
1.34
HR/9
0.43
65.6%
LOB%
75.2%
13.2%
HR/FB%
7.1%
4.08
FIP
2.67
3.98
xFIP
3.15
.226
AVG
.247
23.1%
K%
23.4%
6.4%
BB%
4.8%
4.00
SIERA
3.30

R. Olson

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

M. Fried

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/2 NYM
Bassitt N/A
W5-2 N/A
6
4
2
2
6
0
64-90
4/26 CHC
Stroman N/A
W3-1 N/A
6
4
1
1
4
0
61-89
4/19 LAD
Buehler N/A
W3-1 N/A
7
2
0
0
8
0
62-93
4/13 WSH
Gray N/A
L1-3 N/A
5.1
7
3
2
4
0
53-78
4/7 CIN
Mahle N/A
L3-6 N/A
5.2
8
5
5
5
1
56-84

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
DET ATL
DET ATL
Consensus
+177
-207
+178
-211
+180
-218
+170
-205
+180
-215
+180
-215
+185
-220
+185
-225
+180
-220
+175
-210
+180
-225
+180
-225
Open
Current
Book
DET ATL
DET ATL
Consensus
+1.5 (-115)
-1.5 (+137)
+1.5 (-115)
-1.5 (-106)
+1.5 (-115)
-1.5 (-108)
+1.5 (-115)
-1.5 (-105)
+1.5 (-114)
-1.5 (+108)
+1.5 (-114)
-1.5 (-105)
+1.5 (-120)
-1.5 (-103)
+1.5 (-120)
-1.5 (-103)
+1.5 (-115)
-1.5 (-110)
+1.5 (-115)
-1.5 (-105)
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (-105)
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (-110)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.5 (+106)
8.5 (-126)
8.0 (-106)
8.0 (-114)
8.5 (+105)
8.5 (-125)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
7.5 (-124)
7.5 (+102)
8.0 (-104)
8.0 (-118)
8.0 (-118)
8.0 (-104)
8.0 (-109)
8.0 (-110)
8.5 (+105)
8.5 (-125)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)