Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Odds, Picks – 4/17/2024

Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies Overview

• Date: April 17, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Feltner - Rockies
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies
• Run Line: Rockies 1.5 -110, Phillies -1.5 -110
• Money Line: Rockies 190, Phillies -225
• Total (Over/Under):8 -110

Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Colorado Rockies - 33%
• Philadelphia Phillies - 67%

Projected Win %:

• Colorado Rockies - 29.71%
• Philadelphia Phillies - 70.29%

Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies Game Preview & Prediction

The Philadelphia Phillies are set to face off against the Colorado Rockies on April 17, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park. As the home team, the Phillies will look to continue their successful season with a record of 10-8, while the struggling Rockies aim to turn their 4-14 season around.

On the mound, the Phillies are projected to start left-handed pitcher Cristopher Sanchez, who has a record of 0-2 this year with an ERA of 3.52. Despite his solid performance, Sanchez has been unlucky according to his 2.66 FIP, indicating the potential for improved results in the future. The Rockies will counter with right-handed pitcher Ryan Feltner, who boasts a 1-1 record and an impressive ERA of 3.38. However, Feltner's 3.93 FIP suggests that he may have been fortunate this season and could face challenges going forward.

Sanchez is projected to pitch an average of 5.6 innings, allowing 1.6 earned runs and striking out 6.4 batters. However, he is also expected to surrender 4.3 hits and 1.5 walks on average. On the other hand, Feltner is projected to pitch an average of 4.8 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, striking out 5.0 batters, and giving up 4.6 hits and 2.0 walks.

In terms of offense, the Phillies rank as the 24th best team in MLB this season, but they excel in team batting average (ranked 8th) and stolen bases (ranked 10th). The Rockies, on the other hand, have an average offense overall (ranked 17th), with an average team batting average (ranked 18th) and a lackluster performance in home runs (ranked 24th) and stolen bases (ranked 30th).

Based on the current odds, the Phillies are the favorites with a moneyline of -220, implying a 67% chance of victory. The Rockies, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +190, with a 33% implied win probability. The Phillies have a higher implied team total of 4.75 runs, while the Rockies have a lower implied team total of 3.25 runs.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Ryan Feltner has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 8.7 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Michael Toglia has been hot recently, notching 2 long-balls in the past 7 days.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies' bullpen grades out as the 9th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

The Colorado Rockies have 6 hitters in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage against Cristopher Sanchez in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryce Harper in the 97th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Brandon Marsh has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 48 games (+9.05 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 37 away games (+11.46 Units / 30% ROI)

Rockies vs Phillies Prediction: Rockies 3.02 - Phillies 4.48

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