Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction – 4/2/2025

Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to host the Colorado Rockies on April 2, 2025, they enter the matchup with a strong 3-1 record this season, while the Rockies struggle at 1-3. The Phillies have been performing exceptionally well, boasting the 5th best offense in MLB, and they are heavily favored in this contest. In their last game, the Phillies showcased their dominance, winning decisively and looking to build on that momentum.

The pitching matchup features Zack Wheeler for the Phillies, who is projected to be one of the elite arms in the league, currently ranked as the 3rd best starting pitcher according to advanced statistics. Wheeler's ERA stands at an impressive 1.50, although his 3.66 xERA suggests he may have been a bit fortunate early on. He projects to pitch around 6.3 innings, allowing 1.4 earned runs and striking out 8.8 batters on average. Facing him is Kyle Freeland, who has a perfect 0.00 ERA but is projected to struggle against a potent Phillies lineup that ranks 6th in home runs.

The Rockies' offense has been underwhelming, ranking 51st in MLB, and they have hit only 2 home runs this season, tied for the 3rd least in the league. This lack of power could be problematic against a high-groundball pitcher like Wheeler, who excels at keeping the ball on the ground. Furthermore, Freeland’s high strikeout rate may not be as effective against a Phillies team that ranks 6th least in strikeouts.

With the Game Total set at a low 7.0 runs, expect a strategic battle. The Phillies are projected to score 4.45 runs, while the Rockies are expected to manage only 2.55 runs. Given the current form and overall talent disparity, the Phillies look poised to continue their strong start to the season.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Kyle Freeland will allow an average of 5.2 singles in today's game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.280) implies that Ezequiel Tovar has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season with his .321 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Hunter Goodman (the Rockies's expected catcher in today's matchup) is considered to be a horrible pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Zack Wheeler's higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (47.4% compared to 39.6% last year) figures to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Max Kepler has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (67% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Philadelphia has been great at making hard contact. If you look at the top 5% of their batted balls by exit velocity, their average (98 mph) ranks among the league's best: #2 in baseball since the start of last season.

• Average exit velocity can be misleading. By focusing on a hitter's best-hit balls, we can better isolate his underlying talent and what he will do in the future.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 61 games (+9.70 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 22 games (+5.90 Units / 27% ROI)
• Zack Wheeler has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+7.45 Units / 42% ROI)

• Date: April 2, 2025
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Freeland - Rockies
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies

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