Colorado Rockies at New York Mets Pick For 7/14/2024

Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets Details

• Date: July 14, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • German Marquez - Rockies
  • Jose Quintana - Mets

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets Betting Preview

As the New York Mets prepare to host the Colorado Rockies at Citi Field on July 14, 2024, the Mets are looking to improve upon their above-average season, currently sitting at 49-45. Meanwhile, the Rockies, at 33-63, are enduring a dismal run. This matchup is the third game in the series, and with the Mets having a clear edge over a struggling Rockies team, the fans at Citi Field will be hoping for another strong performance.

Jose Quintana, the Mets' left-handed starter, takes the mound with a respectable 3.91 ERA this season. However, his 4.49 xFIP suggests he might have been a tad fortunate so far. Quintana has a 4-5 record across 18 starts, and he'll be aiming to exploit a Rockies offense that ranks 19th overall and strikes out frequently—the 3rd most in MLB. This could provide Quintana with a crucial advantage, considering his low 17.3% strikeout rate.

On the other side, German Marquez will start for the Rockies. The right-hander is considered below average by advanced-stat Power Rankings and has struggled with a 3.0 earned runs projection per game. Marquez's projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, aren't very optimistic either, pegging him for 5.5 innings pitched with 5.6 hits and 1.9 walks allowed, both of which are poor indicators.

Offensively, the Mets hold a notable edge, ranking 7th in MLB overall with strong showings in batting average (10th) and home runs (4th). The Rockies' offense is middling at best, ranking 15th in batting average and struggling in power metrics, sitting at 20th for home runs.

The Mets' bullpen, ranked 18th, is slightly better than the Rockies' pen, which is 24th. With the Mets as heavy favorites in this contest, boasting an implied win probability of 65% based on their -205 moneyline, the odds are in their favor to take this game and the series. The Game Total sits at 8.5 runs, reflecting an average scoring expectation, but given the Mets' offensive prowess, they could very well push that number higher.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), German Marquez is expected to post an average of 17.3 outs in today's outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Ryan McMahon has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 12.6% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the last week.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Brendan Rodgers hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Jose Quintana has added a slider to his pitch mix this year and has used it 5.1% of the time.

• Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.

Francisco Alvarez has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.5-mph dropping to 78.1-mph in the past week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

It may be smart to expect worse numbers for the New York Mets offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 4th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 49 of their last 78 games (+15.05 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 56 games (+7.40 Units / 13% ROI)
• J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+11.10 Units / 13% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.76 vs New York Mets 4.61

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