Cleveland Guardians vs San Diego Padres Prediction – 4/1/2025

Cleveland Guardians vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres prepare to host the Cleveland Guardians on April 1, 2025, they come into this game with a 5-0 record, reflecting a strong start to the season. The Padres are riding high, bolstered by a potent offense that ranks 6th in MLB, including a stellar 2nd in team batting average. Conversely, the Guardians sit at an average 2-2, struggling offensively with a 21st ranking in batting average.

In their last matchup, the Padres showcased their dominance, winning decisively. This game marks the second in a series that could further highlight the disparity between these two teams. San Diego's Michael King is projected to take the mound, despite a troubling ERA of 10.13 this season. However, advanced projections suggest he has been unlucky, with a 6.25 xFIP indicating he could perform better going forward. King’s low strikeout rate (18.8 K%) may be a concern against the Guardians, who rank as the 4th least strikeout-prone offense.

On the other side, Cleveland will counter with Logan Allen, who has been struggling and is ranked among the worst pitchers in MLB according to the projections. Allen's poor performance is reflected in his projected stats, including a low innings pitched average and high hits allowed.

With a Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, the Padres are favored at -160, translating to an implied team total of 4.15 runs, while the Guardians are projected much lower at 3.35 runs. Given the Padres' offensive firepower and the Guardians' struggles, this matchup favors San Diego significantly.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Among all the teams playing today, the best infield defense belongs to the Cleveland Guardians.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Lane Thomas has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (66% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Cleveland Guardians have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Daniel Schneemann, Bo Naylor, Nolan Jones).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Compared to average, Michael King has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, recording an extra 3.3 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Luis Arraez has hit 3.1% of his balls in the air 100+ mph since the start of last season, ranking in the 0th percentile.

• To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 65 of their last 105 games (+17.35 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 76 away games (+14.40 Units / 17% ROI)
• Yuli Gurriel has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+6.35 Units / 33% ROI)

• Date: April 1, 2025
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Allen - Guardians
  • Michael King - Padres

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