Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies Pick & Preview – 7/27/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies Details

• Date: July 27, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Carrasco - Guardians
  • Tyler Phillips - Phillies

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies and Cleveland Guardians face off in the second game of their interleague series on July 27, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park. Both teams are having strong seasons, with the Phillies boasting a 64-39 record and the Guardians close behind at 62-41. This matchup between two of the league's top teams promises to be an exciting contest.

The Phillies, fresh off a victory in yesterday's game, will look to continue their winning ways. Tyler Phillips, the projected starter for Philadelphia, has shown flashes of brilliance this season with a 2-0 record and an impressive 2.81 ERA. However, his advanced metrics, like a 3.51 xERA, suggest he's been a bit lucky and might regress. Phillips is projected to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs and striking out 3.4 batters—mediocre numbers overall.

On the other side, Carlos Carrasco takes the mound for the Guardians. Carrasco has struggled this season with a 3-8 record and a 5.32 ERA. However, his 4.14 xFIP suggests he's been somewhat unlucky and could improve. Carrasco is slated to pitch 4.7 innings, allowing 3.3 earned runs, and striking out 3.9 batters.

Offensively, the Phillies have a significant edge. Ranked 5th in overall offense, 3rd in batting average, 6th in home runs, and 4th in stolen bases, Philadelphia's lineup is a powerhouse. Nick Castellanos has been particularly hot, hitting .304 with a .913 OPS over the last week. Conversely, the Guardians' offense is more middle-of-the-pack, ranking 13th overall. Austin Hedges has been a standout recently, batting .400 with a .900 OPS in his last four games.

The Phillies' bullpen, ranked 3rd by advanced metrics, will look to shut down any late-game rallies from Cleveland. However, the Guardians' bullpen is even better, ranked 1st, which could make for an interesting late-inning battle.

The betting lines favor the Phillies at -155 with an implied win probability of 59%, while the Guardians are underdogs at +135 with a 41% implied win probability. With both teams excelling this season, this game is crucial for maintaining their strong standings and momentum heading into the latter part of the season.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Carlos Carrasco has relied on his change-up 8.1% less often this year (21.8%) than he did last year (29.9%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Andres Gimenez is penciled in 7th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians' bullpen profiles as the best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Tyler Phillips was rolling in his last GS and allowed 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Bryce Harper is apt to have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Cleveland Guardians has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Brandon Marsh has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 52 of their last 84 games (+16.15 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 94 games (+7.87 Units / 6% ROI)
• Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 21 away games (+14.45 Units / 37% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.72 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.53

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