Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Angels Pick – 4/5/2025

Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

On April 5, 2025, the Los Angeles Angels will host the Cleveland Guardians at Angel Stadium for the second game in their series. Following yesterday's contest, where the Guardians managed to secure a victory, both teams will look to establish momentum moving forward. The Angels currently hold a record of 4-3, showcasing a strong start to the season, while the Guardians sit at 3-4, struggling to find their footing.

Projected starters Jack Kochanowicz for the Angels and Tanner Bibee for the Guardians present an interesting matchup. Kochanowicz, despite currently ranking as the 214th best starter in MLB—a mark that places him among the bottom tier—has posted an impressive ERA of 3.00. However, underlying metrics suggest he might be due for regression, given his higher xFIP of 3.95. He is forecasted to pitch approximately 5.5 innings, allowing around 2.7 earned runs and striking out just 3.1 batters, which raises concerns about his ability to handle the Guardians' lineup.

On the other hand, Tanner Bibee comes into the game as the 42nd ranked starter in MLB. He holds an unblemished 0.00 ERA over his first start, but his xFIP of 6.07 indicates he, too, may be living on borrowed time. Bibee is projected for 5.3 innings pitched, with an expected 2.5 earned runs and an average of 5.6 strikeouts.

With the Angels' recent performance and home-field advantage, they could surprise the Guardians, who are considered the betting favorites. Expect a closely contested game with both pitchers looking to cement their roles as reliable starters.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Out of all the teams today, the strongest infield defense is that of the Cleveland Guardians.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Extreme flyball hitters like Jose Ramirez generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Jack Kochanowicz.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Cleveland Guardians bullpen projects as the best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Jack Kochanowicz is an extreme groundball pitcher (51.6% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Angel Stadium — the #5 HR venue in the league — in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Nolan Schanuel has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (67% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Mike Trout ranks as the 11th-best batter in Major League Baseball.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 27 games (+6.05 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 37 games (+14.00 Units / 34% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 away games (+14.40 Units / 160% ROI)

• Date: April 5, 2025
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians
  • Jack Kochanowicz - Angels

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