Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers Best Bet – 7/29/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Details

• Date: July 29, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians
  • Jack Flaherty - Tigers

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

The Detroit Tigers and the Cleveland Guardians are set to face off in the first game of their series on July 29, 2024, at Comerica Park. This American League Central matchup sees the Tigers, currently holding a 52-55 record, against the Guardians, who are enjoying an impressive season with a 63-42 record. The Guardians are leading the division, and a win here could further solidify their strong position.

On the mound, Detroit will start Jack Flaherty, who has been excellent this season with a 2.95 ERA and a 7-5 record through 18 starts. Flaherty is ranked as the #32 best starting pitcher, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. His high strikeout rate (32.1 K%) could be challenged by the Guardians’ disciplined offense, which ranks 5th in MLB for least strikeouts. However, his projected stats show a mix of strengths and weaknesses, with 5.3 hits and 1.6 walks allowed on average being concerning figures.

Cleveland will counter with Tanner Bibee, who has a solid 3.50 ERA and an 8-4 record through 21 starts. Bibee, ranked just behind Flaherty as the #33 best starting pitcher, has had a great season. The projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, show him being slightly better in terms of allowing earned runs, with an average of 2.3 earned runs per game. Like Flaherty, Bibee’s projected hits and walks allowed per game are on the higher side at 5.0 and 1.4, respectively.

Offensively, the Guardians hold the edge with their 14th-ranked lineup compared to the Tigers' 24th-ranked lineup. Cleveland's batters should find ways to capitalize against a Detroit pitching staff that has its vulnerabilities. Austin Hedges has been hot for Cleveland, batting .400 with a .971 OPS over the last week.

Both teams have strong bullpens, with Cleveland's ranked 2nd and Detroit's 10th in our advanced-stat Power Rankings. This game is projected to be close, with betting markets giving the Tigers a 48% implied win probability and the Guardians a slight edge at 52%. Expect a low-scoring affair given the game total set at 7.0 runs. This matchup will be a test of which starter can better handle the opposition's offense and which bullpen can hold up in the late innings.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Tanner Bibee has been very fortunate when it comes to his strikeouts this year, notching a 10.12 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 9.52 — a 0.60 K/9 discrepancy.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Steven Kwan's true offensive skill to be a .310, suggesting that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .074 disparity between that mark and his actual .384 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

In today's matchup, David Fry is at a disadvantage facing the league's 5th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 35.7% rate (90th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

In his last start, Jack Flaherty turned in a great performance and allowed 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Justyn-Henry Malloy has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (75% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Projected catcher Jake Rogers profiles as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 75 games (+12.60 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.80 Units / 62% ROI)
• Justyn-Henry Malloy has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 12 games (+11.40 Units / 95% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.23 vs Detroit Tigers 3.76

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